Evidence and Hypothesis in Clinical Medical Science

1. Introduction 1.1 Aims and Motivation 1.2 Overview of the Following Chapters References

2. Theories of Confirmation in which Hypotheses do not have Probabilities 2.1 Hypothetico-Deductivism 2.2 Hempel's "Satisfaction" Theory 2.3 Mayo's Error-Statistical Theory References

3. Theories of Confirmation in which Hypotheses have Probabilities, and Inference to the Best Explanation 3.1 General 3.2 Bayesianism 3.3 Achinstein's Theory of Evidence 3.4 Inference to the Best Explanation 3.4.1 What is an Explanation? 3.4.2 Evidence, Hypothesis, and Explanation in Clinical Medical Science References

4. Confirmation of Hypotheses in Clinical Medical Science 4.1 General 4.2 Therapeutic Hypotheses 4.2.1 Controlled Trials 4.2.2 N of 1 Trials 4.3 Etiologic Hypotheses 4.3.1 Cohort Studies 4.3.2 Case-Control Studies 4.3.3 Cross-Sectional Studies 4.3.4 Remarks on the Challenges of Etiologic Research 4.4 Diagnostic Hypotheses References

5. A Weight of Evidence Account 5.1 General 5.2 Some Threats to Accuracy 5.2.1 Selection Bias 5.2.2 Information Bias 5.2.3 Confounding 5.3 How is the Weight of Evidence Determined? 5.3.1 Cochrane Systematic Reviews 5.3.2 IARC Reviews 5.4 How is the Weight of Evidence Quantified? 5.5 The Importance of Accuracy References

6. The Weight of Evidence Account Defended 6.1 General 6.2 Current Theories of Evidence are Unsatisfactory for Clinical Medical Science 6.3 The Weight of Evidence Account Remedies Deficiencies in other Accounts 6.4 The Weight of Evidence Account Explains the Case Studies 6.5 The Weight of Evidence Account Explains Efforts to Rank Evidence References

7. Justification for the Hierarchical Pyramid of Evidence-Based Medicine and a Defense of Randomization 7.1 General 7.2 The Evolution of Treatments for Early Breast Cancer 7.2.1 Background 7.2.2 Early Studies 7.2.3 Controlled Trials in Clinical Medical Science Revisited 7.2.4 RCTs in Early Breast Cancer 7.3 Is Randomization Necessary? 7.4 A Defense of Randomization 7.5 Analysis of Evidence in Studies of Treatment for Early Breast Cancer 7.6 Some Issues in Generalizing the Results of RCTs in Clinical Medical Science 7.7 Why the Hierarchical Pyramid of EBM is Justified References

8. Ethics and Is Evidence from Randomized Controlled Trials Necessary to Firmly Establish a New Therapy? 8.1 General 8.2 ECMO 8.2.1 Background and RCTs of ECMO 8.2.2 Were the ECMO RCTs Necessary? 8.3 Carcinoma of the Anal Canal 8.4 Disseminated Carcinoma of the Testis 8.5 Conclusions References Index