Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES

Getting Started Checklist

Customer Checklist

Issue Redefinition

Chronologies and Timelines

Sorting

Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

Matrices

Network Analysis

Mind Maps and Concept Maps

Process Maps and Gantt Charts

Structured Brainstorming

Virtual Brainstorming

Nominal Group Technique

Starbursting

Cross-Impact Matrix

Morphological Analysis

Quadrant Crunching

Basic Scenario Analysis

Alternative Futures Analysis

Multiple Scenario Generation

Indicators

Indicators Validator

Simple Hypothesis

Multiple Hypotheses Generator

Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

Diagnostic Reasoning

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Argument Mapping

Deception Detection

Key Assumptions Check

Structured Analogies

Role Playing

Red Hat Analysis

Outside-In Thinking

Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

Prediction Markets

Premortem Analysis

Structured Self-Critique

What If? Analysis

High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

Devil’s Advocacy

Red Team Analysis

Delphi Method

Adversarial Collaboration

Structured Debate

Complexity Manager

Decision Matrix

Force Field Analysis

Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

SWOT Analysis