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Human Predicament Complex Modeling

Danilo Oliveira Vaz

The convergence of different crises pressuring the world today is probably one of the most complex human-made phenomena we can observe. From biodiversity loss to the threat to democracy, all of these crises are deeply intertwined. Therefore, tools from the complexity and systems-thinking toolsets become very relevant for anyone seeking to have a slight grasp of what is going on and what is probably going to happen. This project is about using two of these tools to have a minimal understanding of how all of these crises are interconnected and to simulate possible future scenarios.

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The convergence of different crises pressuring the world today is probably one of the most complex human-made phenomena we can observe. From biodiversity loss to the threat to democracy, all of these crises are deeply intertwined. Therefore, tools from the complexity and systems-thinking toolsets become very relevant for anyone seeking to have a slight grasp of what is going on and what is probably going to happen. This project is about using two of these tools to have a minimal understanding of how all of these crises are interconnected and to simulate possible future scenarios.

The aforementioned tools are Loopy and Mental Modeler, which combine provide a insightful framework for the study of the current Human Predicament and other highly complex situations. Moreover, in this project you will have the opportunity to participate in an experiment that tries to touch on the collective intelligence permeating us all in order to have a better understanding of our current situation - and maybe find more suitable paths. Are you ready?

Note: This project works best for learners who are based in the North America region. We’re currently working on providing the same experience in other regions.

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What's inside

Syllabus

Human Predicament Complex Modeling
In this project, we will use the "Stressors framework" developed by the Foresight Analysis Nexus (https://faninitiative.net/challenges/) to build a model that connects the different crises pressuring the world today. This model will then be implemented in two modeling environments: Loopy and Mental Modeler. Each one of these provide different ways to look at the same situation. Lastly, you will be invited to extend this model in both environments, participating in a co-creative effort to tap into our collective intelligence.

Good to know

Know what's good
, what to watch for
, and possible dealbreakers
Explores the complex interplay between global crises, fostering a comprehensive understanding of their interconnectedness
Utilizes Loopy and Mental Modeler, industry-standard tools for complexity and systems-thinking, providing practical experience
Provides an opportunity to collaboratively refine the model, leveraging collective intelligence for deeper insights
Engages learners in a multi-modal experience combining videos, readings, and interactive simulations for effective learning
Taught by Danilo Oliveira Vaz, a recognized expert in complexity and systems-thinking, ensuring the course is grounded in robust research and real-world applications
Best suited for learners based in North America, potentially limiting accessibility for those in other regions

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Reviews summary

Well-received course

According to students, this course is well received. Learners say it's a great introduction to online systems modeling applications and mapping, modeling, matrices, and graphs. Students also appreciate the interactive instruction they receive, and many come into the course with no prior knowledge but still find it easy to learn.
Involves mapping, modeling, matrices, and graphs.
"Mapping, Modelling, Matrix, Graphs."
Professor makes learning easy.
"My gratitude to the instructor. His instruction was very interactive."
Good course for an introduction to systems modeling.
"This was an excellent introduction to two different online systems modeling applications."
"I had no idea about this topic and the project. Yet, I faced no difficulty to learn it from scratch."

Activities

Coming soon We're preparing activities for Human Predicament Complex Modeling. These are activities you can do either before, during, or after a course.

Career center

Learners who complete Human Predicament Complex Modeling will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Social Scientist
Social scientists conduct research that seeks to understand and explain social behavior and the functioning of society. This course may be useful to social scientists who want to gain a deeper understanding of the complex challenges facing the world today. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help social scientists develop the skills needed to analyze and address these challenges.
Consultant
Consultants provide expert advice to businesses and organizations on a variety of topics. This course may be useful to consultants who want to specialize in sustainability or social impact. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help consultants develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex challenges facing businesses and organizations in these areas.
Policy Analyst
Policy analysts develop and evaluate policies to address public problems. This course may be useful to policy analysts who want to specialize in environmental policy or social policy. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help policy analysts develop the skills needed to understand and evaluate the complex interactions between different factors that affect environmental and social policy.
Program Manager
Program managers plan, implement, and evaluate programs to achieve specific goals. This course may be useful to program managers who want to specialize in sustainability or social impact. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help program managers develop the skills needed to understand and manage the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainability and social impact.
Research Analyst
Research analysts collect, analyze, and interpret data to help businesses and organizations make informed decisions. This course may be useful to research analysts who want to specialize in sustainability or social impact. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help research analysts develop the skills needed to understand and evaluate the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainability and social impact.
Data Scientist
Data scientists use data to solve problems and make predictions. This course may be useful to data scientists who want to specialize in environmental data or social data. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help data scientists develop the skills needed to understand and analyze the complex interactions between different factors that affect environmental data and social data.
Educator
Educators teach students at all levels, from elementary school to university. This course may be useful to educators who want to teach about sustainability or social impact. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help educators develop the skills needed to teach students about the complex challenges facing the world today.
Journalist
Journalists write, edit, and produce news stories for newspapers, magazines, websites, and other media outlets. This course may be useful to journalists who want to specialize in environmental journalism or social justice journalism. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help journalists develop the skills needed to understand and report on the complex challenges facing the world today.
Sustainability Manager
Sustainability managers develop and implement plans to reduce a company's environmental impact and improve its social and economic performance. This course may be useful to sustainability managers who want to develop a deeper understanding of the complex challenges facing the world today. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help sustainability managers develop the skills needed to understand and address these challenges.
Activist
Activists work to promote social and political change. This course may be useful to activists who want to focus on environmental issues or social justice issues. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help activists develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex challenges facing the world today.
Nonprofit Manager
Nonprofit managers plan, implement, and evaluate programs and services to achieve the organization's mission. This course may be useful to nonprofit managers who want to specialize in environmental sustainability or social justice. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help nonprofit managers develop the skills needed to understand and manage the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainability and social justice.
Environmental Engineer
Environmental engineers design and implement solutions to environmental problems. This course may be useful to environmental engineers who want to specialize in sustainability or climate change. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help environmental engineers develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainability and climate change.
Risk Manager
Risk managers identify, assess, and manage risks to an organization's operations and assets. This course may be useful to risk managers who want to specialize in environmental risk or social risk. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help risk managers develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex interactions between different factors that affect environmental risk and social risk.
Social Entrepreneur
Social entrepreneurs use business principles to address social and environmental problems. This course may be useful to social entrepreneurs who want to develop innovative solutions to the complex challenges facing the world today. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help social entrepreneurs develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainability and social impact.
Urban Planner
Urban planners develop plans for the use of land and resources in urban areas. This course may be useful to urban planners who want to specialize in sustainable development or climate adaptation. The course's focus on systems thinking and modeling can help urban planners develop the skills needed to understand and address the complex interactions between different factors that affect sustainable development and climate adaptation.

Reading list

We've selected 16 books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Human Predicament Complex Modeling.
Explores the complex interactions between population, pollution, food production, and resource depletion. It provides a framework for understanding the challenges facing humanity and highlights the need for sustainable development.
This practical guide provides a comprehensive overview of systems thinking and its application to real-world problems. It includes a variety of tools and techniques that can be used to analyze and understand complex situations.
Examines the nature of complexity and its implications for human understanding and action. It provides a philosophical framework for understanding the challenges facing humanity and argues for the importance of transdisciplinarity.
Provides a sobering account of the potential consequences of climate change. It explores the scientific evidence and argues that we are facing a global emergency that requires urgent action.
Explores the history of mass extinctions and argues that we are currently experiencing a sixth mass extinction event. It provides a detailed account of the scientific evidence and highlights the need for conservation.
Explores the possible futures of humanity. It examines the latest scientific and technological developments and argues that we are entering a new era of human evolution.
Examines the growing inequality and social unrest in the world. It argues that we are facing a global crisis that requires a fundamental change in our economic and political systems.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the climate change debate. It examines the scientific evidence and argues that we need to take urgent action to address this global threat.
Explores the potential impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on society and the economy. It argues that we need to prepare for a future of unprecedented technological change.
Argues that the state has a vital role to play in driving economic growth and innovation. It provides a detailed account of how governments can support entrepreneurship and create a more prosperous future.
Examines the challenges facing capitalism in the 21st century. It argues that we need to reform our economic system to make it more inclusive and sustainable.
Argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has created a unique opportunity to reset the global economy and society. It provides a detailed plan for how we can build a more sustainable and just future.
Explores the rise of the attention economy and its impact on our lives. It argues that we need to take steps to protect our attention span and free ourselves from the clutches of social media.
Tells the story of two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who revolutionized the field of behavioral economics. It provides a fascinating account of their work and its implications for our understanding of human behavior.

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