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Youngho Park and Stefan Szymanski

In this course the learner will be shown how to generate forecasts of game results in professional sports using Python. The main emphasis of the course is on teaching the method of logistic regression as a way of modeling game results, using data on team expenditures. The learner is taken through the process of modeling past results, and then using the model to forecast the outcome games not yet played. The course will show the learner how to evaluate the reliability of a model using data on betting odds. The analysis is applied first to the English Premier League, then the NBA and NHL. The course also provides an overview of the relationship between data analytics and gambling, its history and the social issues that arise in relation to sports betting, including the personal risks.

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What's inside

Syllabus

Week 1
This module introduces the regression models in dealing with the categorical outcome variables in sport contest (i.e., Win, Draw, Lose). It explains the Linear Probability Model (LPM) in terms of its theoretical foundations, computational applications, and empirical limitations. Then the module introduces and demonstrates the Logistic Regression as a better substitute of LPM for the categorical dependent variables.
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Week 2
This module explores the relationship between probability and betting markets. It explains the concept of odds, and the relationship between betting odds and probabilities. It then develops a measure of the accuracy of betting odds using sports examples, and assesses the meaning of efficiency in betting markets.
Week 3
This module shows how to forecast the outcome of EPL soccer games using an ordered logit model and publicly available information. It assesses the accuracy of these forecasts against the betting odds and shows that they are remarkably accurate.
Week 4
This module assesses the efficacy of the EPL forecasting model covered in the previous week by replicating the model in the context of three North American team sports leagues (i.e., NHL, NBA, MLB). Specifically, this module shows how to forecast the outcome of NHL, NBA, MLB regular season games using an ordered logit model and publicly available information. It assesses the accuracy of these forecasts against the betting odds.
Week 5
In this module we examine the historical and social consequences of gambling, and the relationship between gambling and statistics. Gambling is explored from the perspective of different ethical and religious systems. Issues of problem gambling are explored and assessed.

Good to know

Know what's good
, what to watch for
, and possible dealbreakers
Demystifies soccer gambling odds, bringing clarity to a complex topic
Exposes the secrets of building predictive sports analytical models
Arms learners with in-demand skills in sports analytics
Provides an overview of the historical and ethical dimensions of sports gambling
Equips learners to make informed decisions in the world of sports betting
Introduces learners to logistic regression, providing hands-on experience in the process

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Reviews summary

Practical sports data modeling

According to students, this course is a solid foundation for learning basic modeling techniques in Python and Pandas. Although there are mixed opinions on the difficulty of the course, students appreciate the practical and engaging assignments. The course covers the basics of logistic regression and is recommended for those new to data science coding as well as those with a background in mathematics and statistics.
Practical and engaging assignments
"Excellent course"
"Very interesting course, even though some of the data prep is kind of weird it's nice to see things done a bit differently "
"T​his course covers basics of modeling in form of logistic regression.T​he course is worth for those who want hands-on experience/beginning in pandas/python data science coding and those who are already familiar with mathematics & statistics of regression"
Mixed opinions on difficulty
"I found the material from weeks 2 and 4 very interesting!"
"IN GENERAL TERMS I LIKE IT ALL, WITH THE EXCEPT THAT I COULD NOT FINISH THE SPECIALIZED PROGRAM BECAUSE I DID NOT UNDERSTAND THE QUESTIONS OF COURSE NUMBER 5, THE TEACHER ASKS THINGS THAT HE DOESN'T EXPLAIN, AND WHAT IT EXPLAINES DOES NOT DO IT WITH CLARITY !!!"

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Prediction Models with Sports Data with these activities:
Review Concepts of Probability
Boost your understanding of probability, a core concept for this course.
Show steps
  • Review notes or textbooks on basic probability concepts, such as random variables, probability distributions, and conditional probability.
  • Solve practice problems to reinforce your understanding.
  • Attend a refresher workshop or online tutorial on probability.
Utilize Logistic Regression Tutorials
Enhance your proficiency in logistic regression, the primary technique used in this course for game result modeling.
Browse courses on Logistic Regression
Show steps
  • Identify and enroll in online tutorials or courses that provide a comprehensive overview of logistic regression.
  • Follow along with the tutorials, practicing the concepts and techniques as you progress.
  • Complete the exercises and assignments associated with the tutorials to test your understanding.
Assist at a Sports Analytics Event
Gain practical experience and expand your network by volunteering at a sports analytics event.
Browse courses on Sports Analytics
Show steps
  • Identify upcoming sports analytics conferences, workshops, or industry events.
  • Reach out to the organizers and express your interest in volunteering.
  • Assist with various tasks such as registration, speaker support, or data collection during the event.
Three other activities
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Show all six activities
Practice Forecasting Game Outcomes
Put your knowledge of logistic regression into practice by forecasting game outcomes.
Browse courses on Sports Analytics
Show steps
  • Gather data on historical game results and other relevant variables, such as team statistics and betting odds.
  • Apply the logistic regression model learned in the course to forecast the outcomes of upcoming games.
  • Compare your forecasts to actual outcomes to evaluate the accuracy of your model.
Develop a Betting Model Presentation
Solidify your understanding of betting markets and their relationship with data by creating a presentation on betting models.
Show steps
  • Research different types of betting models and their applications in sports betting.
  • Develop a betting model of your own, outlining the variables considered, the methodology used, and the potential returns.
  • Create a presentation that clearly explains your model, its strengths and limitations, and its potential impact on betting strategies.
Develop a Sports Analytics Dashboard
Showcase your data visualization and analysis skills by creating a comprehensive sports analytics dashboard.
Browse courses on Data Visualization
Show steps
  • Identify a specific sport, league, or team to focus on.
  • Collect and prepare relevant data, including player statistics, team performance, and historical trends.
  • Design and develop a dashboard that visually represents the data, providing insights and enabling data-driven decision-making.

Career center

Learners who complete Prediction Models with Sports Data will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Data Scientist
Data Scientists use statistical analysis and modeling to solve business problems. This course may be useful for aspiring Data Scientists, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Data Scientists.
Machine Learning Engineer
Machine Learning Engineers design and develop machine learning models. This course may be useful for aspiring Machine Learning Engineers, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Machine Learning Engineers.
Business Analyst
Business Analysts use statistical analysis and modeling to solve business problems. This course may be useful for aspiring Business Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Business Analysts.
Operations Research Analyst
Operations Research Analysts use statistical analysis and modeling to solve business problems. This course may be useful for aspiring Operations Research Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Operations Research Analysts.
Statistician
Statisticians collect, analyze, and interpret data to help businesses and organizations make informed decisions. This course may be useful for aspiring Statisticians, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Statisticians.
Software Engineer
Software Engineers design and develop software applications. This course may be useful for aspiring Software Engineers, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Software Engineers.
Data Analyst
Data Analysts use statistical analysis and modeling to solve business problems. This course may be useful for aspiring Data Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Data Analysts.
Financial Analyst
Financial Analysts use statistical analysis and modeling to analyze financial data and make investment decisions. This course may be useful for aspiring Financial Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Financial Analysts.
Risk Analyst
Risk Analysts use statistical analysis and modeling to assess risk and uncertainty. This course may be useful for aspiring Risk Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Risk Analysts.
Data Engineer
Data Engineers design and build systems to store and process data. This course may be useful for aspiring Data Engineers, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Data Engineers.
Quantitative Analyst
Quantitative Analysts use mathematical and statistical models to analyze financial data and make investment decisions. This course may be useful for aspiring Quantitative Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Quantitative Analysts.
Actuary
Actuaries use mathematical and statistical models to assess risk and uncertainty. This course may be useful for aspiring Actuaries, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Actuaries.
Computer Scientist
Computer Scientists design and develop software applications. This course may be useful for aspiring Computer Scientists, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Computer Scientists.
Artificial Intelligence Engineer
Artificial Intelligence Engineers design and develop artificial intelligence systems. This course may be useful for aspiring Artificial Intelligence Engineers, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Artificial Intelligence Engineers.
Sports Analyst
A Sports Analyst studies past game results, player performance, and other relevant data to make predictions about future outcomes. This course may be useful for aspiring Sports Analysts, as it provides a foundation in statistical analysis and modeling techniques that are essential for success in the field. The course also covers the relationship between data analytics and gambling, which is a key area of interest for many Sports Analysts.

Reading list

We've selected six books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Prediction Models with Sports Data.
By two of the instructors provides essential background knowledge for the course on the relationship between soccer and gambling, cultural and economic factors for soccer performance, and how odds and predictions can be made.
Covers a wide range of statistical learning methods, including logistic regression, and useful reference for anyone interested in learning more about the statistical methods used in this course.
Covers a wide range of data science methods used in sports, including logistic regression and other statistical models for prediction.
By one of the instructors provides additional material on the economics of sports, which is important for understanding the context of sports gambling.
Provides a good overview of predictive analytics, which is the general field of study that this course falls under.

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