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Scott E. Page

We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians.

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We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians.

The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!

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What's inside

Syllabus

Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects
In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller.
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Traffic lights

Read about what's good
what should give you pause
and possible dealbreakers
Uses models to provide a foundation for future social science classes, such as economics, political science, business, or sociology
Guides through models that help learners better organize and understand information
Enhances learners' abilities to make accurate forecasts and adopt more effective strategies
Provides a starter kit of models that explain topics like tipping points, the wisdom of crowds, and the wealth of nations
Models are easily digestible and accessible, ensuring a smooth learning experience

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Reviews summary

Understanding complex systems through models

According to learners, Model Thinking is a highly valuable course that significantly improves analytical thinking and provides a solid foundation for understanding complex systems. Students broadly praise the excellent and engaging instructor, Professor Page, and the course's wide range of relevant models applicable across social sciences and business. While the course is seen as challenging and requires active engagement, it is often described as incredibly rewarding. A common point raised is that the technical 'deep dive' sections can be difficult to follow for some, and the stated algebra prerequisite may feel insufficient for these parts.
Provides a base, may need supplementation.
"Good foundation, but you'll need to supplement this for deeper understanding in specific areas."
"Useful overview of model thinking."
"Good breadth, maybe lacking depth in places."
Covers a diverse range of relevant models.
"The range of models covered is impressive..."
"Loved the breadth of topics covered and how they connect seemingly disparate fields."
"Fantastic course! Learned so much about different types of models..."
Changes perspective and improves thinking.
"...for anyone wanting to improve their analytical thinking."
"It definitely changed how I think about complex systems."
"Learning these models helped me think more clearly."
Professor Page is widely praised for teaching.
"Absolutely brilliant course! Prof. Page makes complex ideas accessible and engaging."
"The instructor is excellent - enthusiastic and knowledgeable."
"Professor Page is a gifted lecturer."
Deeper technical sections are difficult for some.
"...the 'deep dive' technical sections can be difficult to follow without a stronger math background..."
"Some sections, particularly those with math, felt a bit rushed or required external knowledge."
"The instructor's explanations in the technical sections were often hard to grasp."
Algebra prerequisite may be insufficient.
"The algebra requirement seems misleading, as some parts felt like they needed calculus or at least pre-calculus understanding..."
"Expected something more accessible."
"It assumes more prior knowledge than advertised."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Model Thinking with these activities:
Review basic probability and statistics concepts
Probability and statistics are essential for understanding many of the models covered in this course. Review these concepts before starting the course to refresh your memory and improve your understanding.
Browse courses on Probability
Show steps
  • Review your notes or textbooks from a previous probability and statistics course
  • Take a practice quiz or exam to test your understanding
Review lecture notes and readings from a previous course on social science modeling
If you have taken a previous course on social science modeling, review the lecture notes and readings to refresh your memory on the key concepts.
Browse courses on Agent-Based Modeling
Show steps
  • Gather your lecture notes and readings from the previous course
  • Review the material and take notes as needed
Gather and organize course materials
Start building a library of materials that you can use to study, review, and practice for the course.
Show steps
  • Set up a filing system for notes, assignments, and other handouts
  • Scan or take photos of important documents
  • Create a digital or physical library of reference materials, such as textbooks, articles, and videos
Six other activities
Expand to see all activities and additional details
Show all nine activities
Join a study group or discussion forum
Joining a study group or discussion forum can provide you with opportunities to discuss the course material with other students, ask questions, and get help with difficult concepts.
Show steps
  • Find a study group or discussion forum related to the course
  • Introduce yourself and participate in the discussions
Use online tutorials to learn about Markov processes
Markov processes are used to model a wide variety of phenomena, from the spread of diseases to the behavior of financial markets. Use online tutorials to learn more about Markov processes.
Browse courses on Markov Processes
Show steps
  • Find a set of online tutorials on Markov processes
  • Follow the tutorials and complete the associated exercises
Read 'Complex Adaptive Social Systems' by Scott E. Page
This book covers a broad range of topics relevant to the course, including models of social networks, segregation, and collective behavior.
Show steps
  • Read the book and take notes
  • Summarize the key concepts in your own words
  • Identify the connections between the book and the course material
Practice solving tipping point problems
Tipping points are common in many social and economic systems. Practice solving problems related to tipping points to improve your understanding of the concept.
Browse courses on Tipping Points
Show steps
  • Find a set of practice problems related to tipping points
  • Solve the problems using the methods learned in the course
  • Check your solutions against the provided answer key
Build a model of a social or economic system
Build a model of a social or economic system to apply the concepts learned in the course and gain a deeper understanding of how these systems work.
Show steps
  • Choose a social or economic system to model
  • Identify the key variables and relationships in the system
  • Develop a mathematical or computational model of the system
  • Simulate the model to generate data
  • Analyze the data to draw conclusions about the system
Write a blog post or article about a topic covered in the course
Writing about a topic helps you to solidify your understanding and identify areas where you need further study. Choose a topic that you find particularly interesting or challenging and write a blog post or article about it.
Show steps
  • Choose a topic related to the course material
  • Research the topic to gather information
  • Organize your thoughts and write an outline
  • Write the blog post or article

Career center

Learners who complete Model Thinking will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Market Researcher
Market Researchers collect and analyze data about consumers and markets, using models to draw conclusions about consumer behavior, trends, and demand. By using the models and datasets learned in Model Thinking, you will be well prepared to effectively carry out these duties. Model Thinking will also help you to make accurate forecasts, design effective strategies, and contribute to the decision-making process.
Financial Analyst
Financial Analysts use data and financial models to help businesses and investors with financial planning and decision-making. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to make accurate forecasts, identify trends and patterns, and develop sound investment strategies.
Data Scientist
Data Scientists use models to analyze data and extract insights. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze models, and to communicate your findings to stakeholders.
Machine Learning Engineer
Machine Learning Engineers use models to develop and implement machine learning algorithms. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze machine learning models, and to build and deploy machine learning systems.
Quantitative Analyst
Quantitative Analysts develop and use mathematical and statistical models to analyze data and solve problems in finance. Model Thinking will help you to build a strong foundation in modeling, data analysis, and problem solving. The course will also equip you with the skills you need to communicate your findings to non-technical audiences.
Data Analyst
Data Analysts use statistical methods to collect, analyze, interpret and present data, most often to support decision-making. Model Thinking will provide you a comprehensive understanding of models, data interpretation and presentation. The course will also give you the ability to identify and present insights from data.
Economist
Economists use economic models to analyze economic data and make predictions about the economy. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze economic models, and to understand the impact of economic policies.
Political Scientist
Political Scientists use models to analyze political phenomena, such as voting behavior and public policy. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze political models, and to understand the impact of political decisions.
Operations Research Analyst
Operations Research Analysts use mathematical and statistical models to solve problems in a variety of industries, including manufacturing, transportation, and healthcare. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze models, and to make recommendations for improving operations.
Business Analyst
Business Analysts use data and models to analyze and improve business processes and systems. Model Thinking will help you to develop the skills you need to model complex systems, identify inefficiencies, and develop solutions. The course will also give you the ability to communicate your findings to business stakeholders.
Social Scientist
Social Scientists use models to analyze social phenomena, such as crime, poverty, and education. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze social models, and to understand the impact of social policies.
Systems Analyst
Systems Analysts use models to analyze and design systems, such as computer systems and business processes. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze system models, and to make recommendations for improving system performance.
Software Engineer
Software Engineers use models to design and develop software programs. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze software models, and to write efficient and reliable code.
Product Manager
Product Managers use models to analyze market data and customer feedback to develop and improve products. Model Thinking will provide you with the tools you need to develop and analyze product models, and to make decisions about product development and marketing.
Management Consultant
Management Consultants use analytical and problem-solving skills to help organizations improve their performance. Model Thinking will help you to develop the skills you need to analyze complex problems, develop solutions, and implement change. The course will also give you the ability to communicate your findings to clients.

Reading list

We've selected 15 books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Model Thinking.
Is by the same professor who teaches this course. It provides additional context for some of the models covered in the course, such as the Schelling model of segregation.
Is also by the same professor who teaches this course. It provides additional context for some of the models covered in the course, such as the Schelling model of segregation.
Provides a general introduction to model thinking. It covers a wide range of topics, including how to identify the right model, how to build a model, and how to use models to make decisions.
Classic work on bounded rationality. It provides a theoretical framework for understanding how people make decisions in the face of limited information and cognitive constraints.
Explores the irrational side of human behavior. It provides a number of examples of how people make irrational decisions, and it discusses the factors that contribute to these irrationalities.
Explores the factors that contribute to the success of ideas, products, and movements. It provides a number of examples of how ideas have spread rapidly, and it discusses the strategies that we can use to create our own tipping points.
Provides a broad overview of human history. It covers a wide range of topics, including the origins of our species, the development of agriculture, the rise of cities, and the emergence of modern society.
Provides a history of the gene. It covers a wide range of topics, including the discovery of DNA, the development of genetic engineering, and the ethical implications of genetic research.
Explores the current extinction crisis. It provides a number of examples of how human activity is driving the extinction of other species, and it discusses the consequences of this extinction for the planet.
Explores the psychological and cultural barriers to addressing climate change. It argues that we need to change the way we think about climate change if we want to take effective action to address it.
Explores the relationship between humans and the natural world. It provides a number of examples of how indigenous cultures have lived in harmony with the land, and it discusses the lessons that we can learn from these cultures.
Explores the factors that contribute to the collapse of societies. It provides a number of examples of how societies have collapsed in the past, and it discusses the lessons that we can learn from these collapses.
Explores the factors that contribute to economic growth. It argues that free markets and individual liberty are the key to prosperity, and it provides a number of examples of how these principles have led to economic growth in the past.
Explores the paradox of progress. It argues that while life has gotten better in many ways, we often feel worse off because we compare ourselves to others and because we are constantly bombarded with negative news.

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