Macroeconometric Forecasting from edX

In this macroeconomics course, you will learn to predict macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth or consumption, and to create statistical models in economics and use them to predict responses to economic policy.

You will learn from hands-on demonstrations of model-building, forecasting and policy analysis, using data sets from a wide variety of countries. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews —a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models on Windows. Free, temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course.

Macroeconometric Forecasting is offered by the IMF with financial support from the Government of Japan.

What you'll learn

Evaluation of macroeconometric models
Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis
Properties of time series data and model design
Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (VARs) and error correction models (VECMs)

What's inside

Learning objectives

Evaluation of macroeconometric models
Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis

Properties of time series data and model design
Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (vars) and error correction models (vecms)

Evaluation of macroeconometric models
Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis
Properties of time series data and model design
Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (vars) and error correction models (vecms)

Syllabus

Module 1: EViews Basics (Optional) Review of the main EViews commands to manage data.

Module 2: Introduction to Forecasting with EViews Introduction to the EViews model simulator to estimate and forecast multiple equation models.

Module 3: Statistical Properties of Times Series Data The concept of stationarity is defined as well as how to test for it. Box-Jenkins (ARMA) methodology to study time series is introduced.

Module 4: Forecast Uncertainty and Model Evaluation How best to choose between forecasts from competing models or sources. Participants will learn the main forecast evaluation statistics and how to calculate them in EViews.

Module 5: Vector Auto-Regressions (VARs) Understand VARs, how they used for forecasting and structural analysis, and how to estimate a well-specified VAR and generate forecasts.

Module 6: Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) Define and understand the concept of cointegration among unit-root variables and its implications for forecasting. Learn how to test for cointegration using the Johansen method and how to estimate and forecast using a VECM.

Module 7: Evaluating Regressions Models What does it mean to have a “good model” (model evaluation and key model assumptions) and the consequences for forecasting. Introduction to model testing and dealing with error irregularities and structural breaks.

Module 8: Final Assignment: Bringing It All Together An overview of the techniques studied is provided using a case study focused on private saving-consumption behavior in the U.S. before and after the global financial crisis.

Good to know

Know what's good

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Examines macroeconometric forecasting models commonly utilized in industry

Taught by economists recognized for their work in macroeconometrics

Supported by the International Monetary Fund with financial support from the Government of Japan

Develops skills useful for work as an economist and for study in economics

Uses EViews, industry-standard software for macroeconometric modeling

Provides temporary, free licenses for EViews for course duration

Reviews summary

Polarizing macroeconometric course

Learners are sharply divided on the quality of this course, with one review highly praising the professional macroeconometrics and economists from IMF instructors, but another review harshly criticizing the heavy focus on EViews instead of macroeconometrics.

Course instructors are economists from the IMF.

"Very good teachers (economists from IMF)!"

Course emphasizes EViews software over macroeconometrics.

"It is more a course about eviews than about macroeconometry."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Macroeconometric Forecasting with these activities:

Review Regression Analysis and Time Series Concepts

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Refresh your knowledge on regression analysis and time series concepts, which are prerequisites for this course.

Browse courses on Regression Analysis

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Review your notes or textbooks on regression analysis
Practice solving regression problems
Review your notes or textbooks on time series analysis
Practice analyzing time series data

Organize and Review Course Materials

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Enhance your understanding of the course content by organizing and reviewing the materials provided.

Browse courses on Review

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Gather all course materials.
Organize the materials into logical sections.
Review the materials regularly.

Review 'Macroeconomic Forecasting Principles and Applications'

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Gain in-depth knowledge and practical insights on macroeconomic forecasting principles and applications.

View Forecasting Economic Time Series on Amazon

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Read the book thoroughly, taking notes and highlighting important concepts
Summarize each chapter in your own words
Complete the exercises and review the solutions provided in the book

Ten other activities

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Review the Key Concepts of Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Build a firm foundation in the concepts of macroeconomic forecasting before the course starts.

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Watch the video lectures and read the corresponding textbooks on basic concepts of macroeconomics
Complete the self-assessment quiz to test your understanding

Compile Resources on Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Organize and expand your knowledge base by compiling a collection of valuable resources on macroeconomic forecasting.

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Search for online articles, books, and other resources on macroeconomic forecasting
Create a list of the most relevant and informative resources
Organize the resources into categories or topics

Discuss Course Concepts with Peers

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Enhance your understanding of the course concepts by discussing them with your peers.

Browse courses on Collaboration

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Find a study partner or group.
Schedule regular study sessions.
Discuss the course concepts.
Work together to solve problems.

Attend a Conference or Webinar on Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Connect with experts and learn about the latest trends in macroeconomic forecasting.

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Research upcoming conferences or webinars on macroeconomic forecasting
Register for an event that aligns with your interests
Attend the event and actively participate in discussions

Practice Estimating Macroeconomic Variables

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Reinforce your understanding of the methods for estimating macroeconomic variables used in the course.

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Find a dataset with macroeconomic variables.
Choose a variable to estimate.
Select an appropriate estimation method.
Estimate the model.
Validate the model.

Macroeconomic Model Building Project

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Apply the econometrics and modeling techniques learned in the course to a real-world macroeconomic problem.

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Identify a macroeconomic problem or issue to analyze.
Gather and clean data relevant to the problem.
Build a macroeconomic model using EViews to represent the problem.
Estimate the model and analyze the results.
Use the model to make forecasts or policy recommendations.

Practice with Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Models

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Sharpen your skills in applying time series analysis and building forecasting models, which are essential for macroeconomic forecasting.

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Work through the practice problems on time series analysis
Build a simple forecasting model using EViews
Evaluate the performance of the model and refine it if necessary

Develop a Forecasting Model for a Specific Economic Indicator

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Apply the forecasting techniques learned in the course to a real-world economic problem.

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Identify an economic indicator to forecast.
Gather the necessary data.
Choose an appropriate forecasting method.
Develop the forecasting model.
Evaluate the model's performance.

Build a Forecasting Model for a Specific Economic Indicator

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Apply your knowledge and skills to a practical project, enhancing your ability to develop and evaluate forecasting models.

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Identify a specific economic indicator to forecast
Gather and clean the necessary data
Build a forecasting model using EViews
Evaluate the performance of the model and make adjustments as needed
Use the model to make forecasts and analyze the results

Develop a Case Study on Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Apply your knowledge to a real-world scenario, which will significantly enhance your understanding and practical skills in macroeconomic forecasting.

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Choose a specific macroeconomic phenomenon to forecast
Collect and analyze relevant data
Build a forecasting model using EViews
Interpret the results and discuss the implications
Present your findings in a written report

Career center

Learners who complete Macroeconometric Forecasting will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Quantitative Analyst

Quantitative Analysts use their skills in mathematics, statistics, and computer programming to develop and implement financial models. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Quantitative Analysts. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Quantitative Analysts to develop accurate and reliable financial models.

See salaries and explore the career path for Quantitative Analyst

Economist

Economists study economic data to understand economic trends and make predictions about the future of the economy. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Economists. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Economists to develop accurate economic forecasts, which are used to inform government policy and business decisions.

See salaries and explore the career path for Economist

Risk Manager

Risk Managers identify, assess, and mitigate risks to an organization's financial health. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Risk Managers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Risk Managers to forecast economic trends and make informed decisions about how to mitigate risks.

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Consultant

Consultants provide advice and expertise to organizations on a wide range of topics, including economics, finance, and strategy. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Consultants. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Consultants to provide accurate and reliable advice to their clients.

See salaries and explore the career path for Consultant

Financial Analyst

Financial Analysts use their expertise to provide financial information and advice to individuals, companies, and institutions. This course helps build a foundation in macroeconomic models, which can be used to analyze economic data and make predictions about economic trends. This information is essential for making sound investment decisions. Additionally, the course covers topics such as forecasting uncertainty and model evaluation, which are critical skills for Financial Analysts.

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Actuary

Actuaries use their skills in mathematics, statistics, and finance to assess and manage risks. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Actuaries. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Actuaries to develop accurate and reliable risk models.

See salaries and explore the career path for Actuary

Investment Banker

Investment Bankers help companies raise capital and provide financial advice. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Investment Bankers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Investment Bankers to make informed decisions about how to raise capital and provide financial advice to their clients.

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Data Scientist

Data Scientists use their skills in statistics, machine learning, and computer programming to extract insights from data. This course provides a solid foundation in time series analysis and forecasting, which are essential skills for Data Scientists. The course also covers topics such as model building and evaluation, which are critical for developing accurate and reliable forecasting models.

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Financial Planner

Financial Planners help individuals and families plan for their financial future. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Financial Planners. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Financial Planners to make informed decisions about how to invest their clients' money.

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Market Researcher

Market Researchers collect and analyze data to understand consumer behavior and market trends. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Market Researchers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Market Researchers to forecast consumer behavior and market trends.

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Personal Financial Advisor

Personal Financial Advisors provide financial advice to individuals and families. This course may be useful for Personal Financial Advisors who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on personal finances. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Personal Financial Advisors who want to provide more informed advice to their clients.

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Loan Officer

Loan Officers help borrowers obtain loans. This course may be useful for Loan Officers who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on loan demand. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Loan Officers who want to make more informed decisions about how to approve loans.

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Credit Analyst

Credit Analysts assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. This course may be useful for Credit Analysts who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on creditworthiness. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Credit Analysts who want to make more informed decisions about how to assess creditworthiness.

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Budget Analyst

Budget Analysts prepare and manage budgets for businesses and organizations. This course may be useful for Budget Analysts who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on budgets. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Budget Analysts who want to make more informed decisions about how to allocate resources.

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Accountant

Accountants prepare and maintain financial records for businesses and organizations. This course may be useful for Accountants who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on businesses. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Accountants who want to provide more informed advice to their clients.

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