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Macroeconometric Forecasting

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Based on 2 ratings
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Reda Cherif, Sam Ouliaris, Adolfo Barajas, Adina Popescu, Jorge Restrepo, Dmitry Plotnikov, and Mikhail Pranovich

In this macroeconomics course, you will learn to predict macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth or consumption, and to create statistical models in economics and use them to predict responses to economic policy.

You will learn from hands-on demonstrations of model-building, forecasting and policy analysis, using data sets from a wide variety of countries. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews —a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models on Windows. Free, temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course.

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In this macroeconomics course, you will learn to predict macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth or consumption, and to create statistical models in economics and use them to predict responses to economic policy.

You will learn from hands-on demonstrations of model-building, forecasting and policy analysis, using data sets from a wide variety of countries. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews —a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models on Windows. Free, temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course.

Macroeconometric Forecasting is offered by the IMF with financial support from the Government of Japan.

What you'll learn

  • Evaluation of macroeconometric models
  • Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis
  • Properties of time series data and model design
  • Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (VARs) and error correction models (VECMs)
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What's inside

Learning objectives

  • Evaluation of macroeconometric models
  • Forecasting of uncertainty and forecasting for policy analysis
  • Properties of time series data and model design
  • Dynamic specification and the use of vector auto-regression models (vars) and error correction models (vecms)

Syllabus

Module 1: EViews Basics (Optional) Review of the main EViews commands to manage data.
Module 2: Introduction to Forecasting with EViews Introduction to the EViews model simulator to estimate and forecast multiple equation models.
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Traffic lights

Read about what's good
what should give you pause
and possible dealbreakers
Examines macroeconometric forecasting models commonly utilized in industry
Taught by economists recognized for their work in macroeconometrics
Supported by the International Monetary Fund with financial support from the Government of Japan
Develops skills useful for work as an economist and for study in economics
Uses EViews, industry-standard software for macroeconometric modeling
Provides temporary, free licenses for EViews for course duration

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Create your own learning path. Save this course to your list so you can find it easily later.
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Reviews summary

Forecasting with eviews: theory & practice

According to learners, this course offers a solid foundation in macroeconometric forecasting techniques, particularly focusing on time series analysis, VARs, and VECMs. Students appreciate the practical application through hands-on exercises using the EViews software, which is provided with a temporary license. While the course is considered highly valuable and covers relevant material, some reviewers note that it can be challenging, especially for those without a strong econometrics background, and might require supplementary learning. Overall, it's seen as a valuable resource for professionals and students seeking to understand and apply forecasting models using EViews.
Modules are logically organized.
"The course modules are well-structured and build upon each other."
"I appreciated the logical flow from basic concepts to more advanced models."
"The syllabus covers the topics in a clear, progressive manner."
"Each module felt like a complete unit, easy to follow."
"The course design made it easy to navigate the material."
Strong theoretical foundation is provided.
"The course delves into the theoretical underpinnings of VAR and VECM models."
"It provides a good balance between theory and application."
"Understanding the statistical properties of time series was well covered."
"The theoretical explanations were clear and well-structured."
"I gained a deeper understanding of the concepts behind the forecasting methods."
Highly relevant for career development.
"The skills learned are directly applicable to my job in economic analysis."
"This course is excellent for anyone working with macroeconomic data and forecasting."
"It provides practical tools used by professionals in the field."
"I feel more confident applying these techniques in my work after taking this course."
"Highly recommended for economists and data analysts."
Practical software usage is a key strength.
"The course provides excellent hands-on demos for applying concepts using EViews."
"Working through the examples in EViews was crucial for understanding the models."
"I really liked how they integrated the EViews labs with the theoretical lectures."
"The practical exercises with EViews were the most useful part for me, allowing direct application."
"Learning to use EViews effectively for forecasting models is a major takeaway."
Needs prior econometrics/stats knowledge.
"You really need strong prerequisites in statistics and econometrics."
"Without prior knowledge, it's hard to follow the technical details."
"I struggled because my background in time series was weak."
"Recommended for those with at least an intermediate level in the subject."
"Make sure you're comfortable with regression and basic econometrics before starting."
Course difficulty may be high for some.
"This course requires a solid background in econometrics to fully grasp."
"It is quite challenging, especially if you are new to time series analysis."
"Some modules were difficult and required extra effort and external resources."
"The pace can feel fast if you're not already familiar with the topics."
"I found the mathematical and statistical concepts demanding at times."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Macroeconometric Forecasting with these activities:
Review Regression Analysis and Time Series Concepts
Refresh your knowledge on regression analysis and time series concepts, which are prerequisites for this course.
Browse courses on Regression Analysis
Show steps
  • Review your notes or textbooks on regression analysis
  • Practice solving regression problems
  • Review your notes or textbooks on time series analysis
  • Practice analyzing time series data
Organize and Review Course Materials
Enhance your understanding of the course content by organizing and reviewing the materials provided.
Browse courses on Review
Show steps
  • Gather all course materials.
  • Organize the materials into logical sections.
  • Review the materials regularly.
Review 'Macroeconomic Forecasting Principles and Applications'
Gain in-depth knowledge and practical insights on macroeconomic forecasting principles and applications.
View Forecasting Economic Time Series on Amazon
Show steps
  • Read the book thoroughly, taking notes and highlighting important concepts
  • Summarize each chapter in your own words
  • Complete the exercises and review the solutions provided in the book
Ten other activities
Expand to see all activities and additional details
Show all 13 activities
Review the Key Concepts of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Build a firm foundation in the concepts of macroeconomic forecasting before the course starts.
Show steps
  • Watch the video lectures and read the corresponding textbooks on basic concepts of macroeconomics
  • Complete the self-assessment quiz to test your understanding
Compile Resources on Macroeconomic Forecasting
Organize and expand your knowledge base by compiling a collection of valuable resources on macroeconomic forecasting.
Show steps
  • Search for online articles, books, and other resources on macroeconomic forecasting
  • Create a list of the most relevant and informative resources
  • Organize the resources into categories or topics
Discuss Course Concepts with Peers
Enhance your understanding of the course concepts by discussing them with your peers.
Browse courses on Collaboration
Show steps
  • Find a study partner or group.
  • Schedule regular study sessions.
  • Discuss the course concepts.
  • Work together to solve problems.
Attend a Conference or Webinar on Macroeconomic Forecasting
Connect with experts and learn about the latest trends in macroeconomic forecasting.
Show steps
  • Research upcoming conferences or webinars on macroeconomic forecasting
  • Register for an event that aligns with your interests
  • Attend the event and actively participate in discussions
Practice Estimating Macroeconomic Variables
Reinforce your understanding of the methods for estimating macroeconomic variables used in the course.
Show steps
  • Find a dataset with macroeconomic variables.
  • Choose a variable to estimate.
  • Select an appropriate estimation method.
  • Estimate the model.
  • Validate the model.
Macroeconomic Model Building Project
Apply the econometrics and modeling techniques learned in the course to a real-world macroeconomic problem.
Show steps
  • Identify a macroeconomic problem or issue to analyze.
  • Gather and clean data relevant to the problem.
  • Build a macroeconomic model using EViews to represent the problem.
  • Estimate the model and analyze the results.
  • Use the model to make forecasts or policy recommendations.
Practice with Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Models
Sharpen your skills in applying time series analysis and building forecasting models, which are essential for macroeconomic forecasting.
Show steps
  • Work through the practice problems on time series analysis
  • Build a simple forecasting model using EViews
  • Evaluate the performance of the model and refine it if necessary
Develop a Forecasting Model for a Specific Economic Indicator
Apply the forecasting techniques learned in the course to a real-world economic problem.
Show steps
  • Identify an economic indicator to forecast.
  • Gather the necessary data.
  • Choose an appropriate forecasting method.
  • Develop the forecasting model.
  • Evaluate the model's performance.
Build a Forecasting Model for a Specific Economic Indicator
Apply your knowledge and skills to a practical project, enhancing your ability to develop and evaluate forecasting models.
Show steps
  • Identify a specific economic indicator to forecast
  • Gather and clean the necessary data
  • Build a forecasting model using EViews
  • Evaluate the performance of the model and make adjustments as needed
  • Use the model to make forecasts and analyze the results
Develop a Case Study on Macroeconomic Forecasting
Apply your knowledge to a real-world scenario, which will significantly enhance your understanding and practical skills in macroeconomic forecasting.
Show steps
  • Choose a specific macroeconomic phenomenon to forecast
  • Collect and analyze relevant data
  • Build a forecasting model using EViews
  • Interpret the results and discuss the implications
  • Present your findings in a written report

Career center

Learners who complete Macroeconometric Forecasting will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Economist
Economists study economic data to understand economic trends and make predictions about the future of the economy. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Economists. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Economists to develop accurate economic forecasts, which are used to inform government policy and business decisions.
See salaries and explore the career path for Economist
Quantitative Analyst
Quantitative Analysts use their skills in mathematics, statistics, and computer programming to develop and implement financial models. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Quantitative Analysts. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Quantitative Analysts to develop accurate and reliable financial models.
See salaries and explore the career path for Quantitative Analyst
Risk Manager
Risk Managers identify, assess, and mitigate risks to an organization's financial health. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Risk Managers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Risk Managers to forecast economic trends and make informed decisions about how to mitigate risks.
See salaries and explore the career path for Risk Manager
Financial Analyst
Financial Analysts use their expertise to provide financial information and advice to individuals, companies, and institutions. This course helps build a foundation in macroeconomic models, which can be used to analyze economic data and make predictions about economic trends. This information is essential for making sound investment decisions. Additionally, the course covers topics such as forecasting uncertainty and model evaluation, which are critical skills for Financial Analysts.
See salaries and explore the career path for Financial Analyst
Consultant
Consultants provide advice and expertise to organizations on a wide range of topics, including economics, finance, and strategy. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Consultants. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Consultants to provide accurate and reliable advice to their clients.
See salaries and explore the career path for Consultant
Actuary
Actuaries use their skills in mathematics, statistics, and finance to assess and manage risks. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Actuaries. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Actuaries to develop accurate and reliable risk models.
See salaries and explore the career path for Actuary
Investment Banker
Investment Bankers help companies raise capital and provide financial advice. This course provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Investment Bankers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Investment Bankers to make informed decisions about how to raise capital and provide financial advice to their clients.
See salaries and explore the career path for Investment Banker
Data Scientist
Data Scientists use their skills in statistics, machine learning, and computer programming to extract insights from data. This course provides a solid foundation in time series analysis and forecasting, which are essential skills for Data Scientists. The course also covers topics such as model building and evaluation, which are critical for developing accurate and reliable forecasting models.
See salaries and explore the career path for Data Scientist
Market Researcher
Market Researchers collect and analyze data to understand consumer behavior and market trends. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Market Researchers. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Market Researchers to forecast consumer behavior and market trends.
See salaries and explore the career path for Market Researcher
Financial Planner
Financial Planners help individuals and families plan for their financial future. This course provides a solid foundation in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for Financial Planners. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge will help Financial Planners to make informed decisions about how to invest their clients' money.
See salaries and explore the career path for Financial Planner
Personal Financial Advisor
Personal Financial Advisors provide financial advice to individuals and families. This course may be useful for Personal Financial Advisors who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on personal finances. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Personal Financial Advisors who want to provide more informed advice to their clients.
See salaries and explore the career path for Personal Financial Advisor
Loan Officer
Loan Officers help borrowers obtain loans. This course may be useful for Loan Officers who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on loan demand. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Loan Officers who want to make more informed decisions about how to approve loans.
See salaries and explore the career path for Loan Officer
Credit Analyst
Credit Analysts assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. This course may be useful for Credit Analysts who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on creditworthiness. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Credit Analysts who want to make more informed decisions about how to assess creditworthiness.
See salaries and explore the career path for Credit Analyst
Budget Analyst
Budget Analysts prepare and manage budgets for businesses and organizations. This course may be useful for Budget Analysts who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on budgets. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Budget Analysts who want to make more informed decisions about how to allocate resources.
See salaries and explore the career path for Budget Analyst
Accountant
Accountants prepare and maintain financial records for businesses and organizations. This course may be useful for Accountants who want to develop a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and their impact on businesses. The course covers topics such as time series analysis, VARs, VECMs, and model evaluation. This knowledge may be useful for Accountants who want to provide more informed advice to their clients.
See salaries and explore the career path for Accountant

Reading list

We've selected ten books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Macroeconometric Forecasting.
Cover image
Panel Methods for Finance
Save
Provides a comprehensive introduction to econometric analysis of time series data. It covers a wide range of topics, including stationarity, unit roots, cointegration, VARs, and VECMs.
Panel Methods for Finance: A Guide to Panel Data...
Perfect Paperback
$$
Panel Methods for Finance: A Guide to Panel Data...
Kindle Edition
$$
Cover image
Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods
Save
Provides a comprehensive introduction to time series analysis using state space methods. It covers a wide range of topics, including Kalman filtering, smoothing, and forecasting.
Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods: Second...
Hardcover
$$$$
Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods: Second...
Kindle Edition
$$$
Cover image
Forecasting
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More advanced coverage of the topics covered in the IMF's Macroeconometric Forecasting course, which could serve as additional reading.
Forecasting: An Essential Introduction
Paperback
$$
Econometric Model Selection: Nonlinear Techniques...
Paperback
$$$$
Forecasting: An Essential Introduction
Kindle Edition
$$
Cover image
Interaction Models
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This is another standard econometrics textbook, which covers a wide range of econometrics topics and provides students with solid background in econometrics.
Interaction Models: Specification and...
Kindle Edition
$$
Introductory Econometrics
Save
Provides a detailed theoretical treatment of econometric methods, focusing on using R to analyze data. It would serve as a good reference for students in the course who want more theoretical background, and could also supplement the course's use of EViews with R.
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach...
Hardcover
$$$
INTRODUCTORY ECONOMETRICS: A MODERN APPROACH WITH...
Paperback
$$
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach -...
Hardcover
$$$
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 4th...
Hardcover
$$$$
Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach
Paperback
$$
Bundle: Introductory Econometrics: A Modern...
Product Bundle
$$$$
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach
Hardcover
$$$
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach
Hardcover
$$$
Introductory Econometrics a Modern Approach
Paperback
$$
Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach...
Kindle Edition
$$$
Cover image
Mastering 'metrics
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Aims to build the modeling and statistical skills needed to conduct empirical research in economics, which complements IMF's Macroeconometric Forecasting by providing a broader coverage of statistical methods and modeling.
Mastering 'metrics
Paperback
Check
Mastering 'metrics
Kindle Edition
Check
Cover image
Introductory Econometrics: Asia-Pacific Edition
Save
Standard textbook on econometrics, covers a range of econometrics topics, and is also written at a level making it useful as either prerequisite knowledge or additional reading.
Introductory Econometrics: Asia-Pacific Edition
Paperback
$$$$
Cover image
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting
Save
Focuses on time series analysis by state space methods, and while not an exact fit for IMF's Macroeconometric Forecasting course, it could serve as additional reading for those interested in state space methods.
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting...
Hardcover
$$$
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting...
Hardcover
$$$
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting...
Paperback
$$$
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting...
Kindle Edition
$$$
Cover image
Mastering 'Metrics
Save
Uses a conversational style to provide the necessary statistical and economic background of econometrics, and has been used as supplementary reading in a number of economics courses.
Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect
Paperback
$$
Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect
Kindle Edition
$$
Cover image
Applied Econometrics with R
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Provides an applied introduction to econometrics in R, which would serve as either prerequisite knowledge or additional reading for this course.
Applied Econometrics with R (Use R!)
Kindle Edition
$$$
Applied Econometrics with R (Research Reports...
Paperback
$$

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Rating
3.0 Filled star Filled star Filled star Empty star Empty star
Effort
5 to 6 hours per week for 8 weeks
Level
Introductory
Via
edX
Institution
The International Monetary Fund
Instructors
Reda Cherif
Sam Ouliaris
Adolfo Barajas
Adina Popescu
Jorge Restrepo
Dmitry Plotnikov
Mikhail Pranovich
Language
English
Transcript
English
Traffic lights
Read about what's good
what should give you pause
and possible dealbreakers
Examines macroeconometric forecasting models commonly utilized in industry
Taught by economists recognized for their work in macroeconometrics
Supported by the International Monetary Fund with financial support from the Government of Japan
Develops skills useful for work as an economist and for study in economics
Uses EViews, industry-standard software for macroeconometric modeling
Provides temporary, free licenses for EViews for course duration
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