Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable from Pluralsight

This course will teach you how to do estimation calibration through Structured Expert Judgment to make your forecasts more reliable by calculating and analyzing calibration and information scores.

Managers and subject matter experts (SMEs) are faced with many challenges particularly in making reliable forecasts with minimal forecasting errors. In this course, Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable, you’ll learn to implement estimation calibration through the Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) method by calculating calibration and information scores. First, you’ll learn what a calibration score is, and how to calculate it. Next, you’ll discover what an information score is, how it's different from the calibration score, and how to calculate it. Finally, you’ll learn how to analyze both calibration score and information score obtained from the calculation to evaluate the assessments made by experts. When you’re finished with this course, you’ll have the skills and knowledge of calculating calibration and information score under Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) which is needed to make your forecasts more reliable through estimation calibration.

What's inside

Syllabus

Course Overview

Potential Problems with Forecasts

Calculating Calibration Scores

Applying Calibration Scores to the Learner’s Expertise

Analyzing Calibration Scores

Calculating Information Scores

Examining Pitfall of Estimating at 50% Probability

Good to know

Know what's good

, what to watch for

, and possible dealbreakers

Applicable to careers and roles involving making reliable forecasts with minimal errors, such as data science, risk management, investment analysis, finance, and consulting

Taught by Wilvie Anora, an expert in the field of estimation calibration

Provides hands-on practice in calculating calibration and information scores using the Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) method

May require additional reading and research to fully grasp the advanced concepts presented

Assumes a basic understanding of probability and statistics

Participants may need to acquire additional resources or software for hands-on practice

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable with these activities:

Review Calibration Score and Confidence Scores

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Review concepts learned in previous course or from past experience.

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Define calibration score and its purpose.
Differentiate between calibration score and confidence scores.
Discuss the relationship between calibration score and confidence scores.

Peer Discussion on Calibration Score and Information Score

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Engage with peers to exchange insights and deepen your understanding of calibration score and information score.

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Discuss the importance of calibration score and information score in estimation calibration.
Share best practices for calculating and interpreting calibration and information scores.
Identify potential challenges and propose solutions for improving calibration and information scores.

Guided Tutorial: Using SEJ for Estimation Calibration

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Follow a guided tutorial to apply SEJ in different contexts, solidifying your understanding.

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Review the principles of SEJ and its role in estimation calibration.
Work through a sample scenario and apply SEJ to calculate calibration and information scores.
Discuss the implications of the results and identify potential improvements.

Three other activities

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Read: Judgment in Managerial Decision Making

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Explore the psychological factors influencing judgment and decision-making, enhancing your understanding of calibration.

View Judgment in Managerial Decision Making on Amazon

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Read chapters covering judgment heuristics and biases.
Review case studies on how biases can impact calibration.
Apply concepts to your own forecasting and estimation judgments.

Compile a Calibration Score Resource Collection

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Gather and organize resources on calibration score and information score to support your learning journey.

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Search for articles, research papers, and online resources on calibration score and information score.
Filter and select relevant resources that provide valuable insights.
Organize and categorize the resources for easy reference and future use.

Create a Calibration Accuracy Report

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Develop a report that showcases your understanding of calibration score and its application.

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Gather data and calculate calibration scores for a specific forecasting scenario.
Analyze the data and identify trends or patterns in the calibration scores.
Generate a report that summarizes the findings and provides recommendations for improving calibration accuracy.

Career center

Learners who complete Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Project Manager

As a Project Manager, you will be responsible for the planning and execution of projects. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the time, cost, and resources required to complete projects. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Data Scientist

A Data Scientist analyzes data to extract meaningful insights and make predictions. Taking this course on Estimation Calibration can help you develop the skills you need to make more reliable predictions. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your models. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your models, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Business Analyst

As a Business Analyst, you will analyze business processes and identify opportunities for improvement. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the time, cost, and resources required to implement new processes or systems. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Operations Research Analyst

As an Operations Research Analyst, you will use mathematical and statistical models to solve complex business problems. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the time, cost, and resources required to implement new solutions. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Statistician

As a Statistician, you will be responsible for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the population parameters of interest. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Financial Analyst

As a Financial Analyst, you will analyze financial data and make recommendations on investment decisions. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the risk and return of investments. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Risk Analyst

As a Risk Analyst, you will identify, assess, and mitigate risks to an organization. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate risk assessments. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the likelihood and impact of risks. This course will also help you develop a risk management plan and make better decisions to mitigate risks to the organization.

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Product Manager

As a Product Manager, you will be responsible for the development and launch of new products. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the time, cost, and resources required to bring new products to market. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Consultant

As a Consultant, you will provide advice and guidance to clients on a variety of business issues. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the time, cost, and resources required to complete your projects. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Quantitative Analyst

As a Quantitative Analyst, you will use mathematical and statistical models to analyze data and make predictions. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate predictions. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your models. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your models, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Actuary

As an Actuary, you will use mathematical and statistical models to assess risk and uncertainty. This course in Estimation Calibration can help you develop the skills you need to make more accurate risk assessments. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the likelihood and impact of risks. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your models, and make better decisions to mitigate risks to the organization.

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Risk Manager

As a Risk Manager, you will be responsible for identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks to an organization. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the likelihood and impact of risks. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Market Researcher

As a Market Researcher, you collect and analyze data to understand consumer behavior. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate estimates of the size and growth potential of markets. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your estimates. This course will also help you better understand the assumptions and limitations of your estimates, and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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Program Manager

As a Program Manager, you will oversee the lifecycle of projects, ensuring they are completed on time, within budget, and to the required quality standards. Taking this Estimation Calibration course can help you make more reliable forecasts, which is critical for successful project management. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to estimate project timelines, costs, and resource needs. This course will also help you identify and mitigate risks, and make better decisions throughout the project lifecycle.

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Forecaster

As a Forecaster, you will use data and statistical models to make predictions about future events. This course in Estimation Calibration can provide you with the skills you need to make more accurate predictions. By learning how to calculate and analyze calibration and information scores, you can improve your ability to assess the accuracy and reliability of your models. This course will also help you develop a forecasting plan and make better decisions based on your analysis.

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