Structured Expert Judgment

Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) is a method for combining expert judgments to make predictions or decisions under uncertainty. It is a systematic and rigorous approach that can help to reduce bias and improve the accuracy of predictions.

Why Learn Structured Expert Judgment?

There are several reasons why you might want to learn about SEJ:

• To make better decisions. SEJ can help you to make more informed decisions by providing you with a structured way to gather and combine expert judgments.
• To improve your forecasting accuracy. SEJ can help you to improve the accuracy of your forecasts by reducing bias and incorporating the judgments of multiple experts.
• To learn about a new field. SEJ is a valuable tool for anyone who wants to learn about a new field. It can help you to quickly and easily gain an understanding of the key issues and challenges in a particular area.
• To advance your career. SEJ is a valuable skill for anyone who works in a field that requires decision-making or forecasting. It can help you to stand out from the competition and advance your career.

How to Learn Structured Expert Judgment

There are many ways to learn about SEJ. You can take a course, read a book, or find online resources. If you are interested in taking a course, there are several options available:

• Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment from Coursera. This course provides an introduction to SEJ and its applications. It is taught by experts in the field and includes hands-on exercises.
• Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable from Coursera. This course teaches you how to use SEJ to improve the accuracy of your forecasts. It is taught by experts in the field and includes hands-on exercises.

If you are interested in learning about SEJ on your own, there are several resources available online:

• The SEJ website provides a wealth of information on SEJ, including tutorials, case studies, and software.
• The book Structured Expert Judgment: A Guide for Decision Makers by A. O. Sykes is a comprehensive guide to SEJ. It is a valuable resource for anyone who wants to learn more about this topic.

Careers in Structured Expert Judgment

SEJ is a valuable skill for anyone who works in a field that requires decision-making or forecasting. Some of the careers that use SEJ include:

• Data scientist
• Statistician
• Risk analyst
• Investment analyst
• Policy analyst

Benefits of Learning Structured Expert Judgment

There are many benefits to learning about SEJ. Some of the benefits include:

• Improved decision-making. SEJ can help you to make better decisions by providing you with a structured way to gather and combine expert judgments.
• Increased forecasting accuracy. SEJ can help you to improve the accuracy of your forecasts by reducing bias and incorporating the judgments of multiple experts.
• Enhanced understanding of new fields. SEJ can help you to quickly and easily gain an understanding of the key issues and challenges in a particular area.
• Career advancement. SEJ is a valuable skill for anyone who works in a field that requires decision-making or forecasting. It can help you to stand out from the competition and advance your career.

Projects for Learning Structured Expert Judgment

There are many projects that you can do to learn about SEJ. Some of these projects include:

• Developing a SEJ model for a specific decision-making problem. This project will help you to learn the steps involved in developing a SEJ model and how to apply it to a real-world problem.
• Evaluating the accuracy of a SEJ model. This project will help you to learn how to evaluate the accuracy of a SEJ model and identify ways to improve it.
• Using SEJ to improve the forecasting accuracy of a machine learning model. This project will help you to learn how to use SEJ to improve the accuracy of a machine learning model.

Tools for Structured Expert Judgment

There are several software tools that can be used to support SEJ. Some of these tools include:

• SEJtool is a free software tool that can be used to develop and evaluate SEJ models.
• ExpertChoice is a commercial software tool that can be used to develop and evaluate SEJ models.
• Oracle Crystal Ball is a commercial software tool that can be used to develop and evaluate SEJ models and to integrate them with other decision-making tools.

Personality Traits for Structured Expert Judgment

Certain personality traits can make you more successful at learning and using SEJ. Some of these traits include:

• Analytical thinking
• Critical thinking
• Problem-solving skills
• Communication skills
• Teamwork skills

Online Courses for Structured Expert Judgment

Online courses can be a helpful way to learn about SEJ. These courses can provide you with the flexibility to learn at your own pace and on your own schedule.

Some of the benefits of learning about SEJ through online courses include:

• Convenience. Online courses can be accessed from anywhere with an internet connection, so you can learn at your own pace and on your own schedule.
• Flexibility. Online courses allow you to learn at your own pace and on your own schedule. You can pause, rewind, and replay lectures as needed.
• Affordability. Online courses are often more affordable than traditional courses.
• Variety. There are a variety of online courses available on SEJ, so you can find one that fits your learning style and needs.

Are Online Courses Enough?

Online courses can be a helpful way to learn about SEJ, but they are not enough to fully understand this topic. SEJ is a complex topic that requires hands-on experience to fully understand. In addition to taking online courses, you should also consider reading books and articles on SEJ, attending webinars and conferences, and working on projects that involve SEJ.