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Tina Nane,
Anca Hanea,
and
Roger Cooke
In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.
For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?
Read more
In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.
For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?
Read more
In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.
For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?
In situations like these, expert opinions are needed to address complex decision-making problems. This course will show you the basics of various techniques that use expert opinion for uncertainty quantification. These techniques vary from the informal and undocumented opinion of one expert to a fully documented and formal elicitation of a panel of experts, such as the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke's method, which is arguably the most rigorous method for performing Structured Expert Judgment.
CM, developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, has been successfully applied for over 30 years in areas as diverse as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public and global health, ecology, aeronautics/aerospace, nuclear safety, environment and ecology, engineering and many others.
Register for this course and see more details by visiting:
OpenCourser.com/course/e50azk/decision
What's inside
Learning objectives
- Recognize when and in which settings the classical model (cm) can be used for performing structured expert judgment
- Understand when to account for uncertainty assessments in complex decision-making context when data pose issues
- Know how cm can be used to analyze expert data and obtain answers to questions of interest
- Explore an optional idea protocol module, which uses a different method of performing structured expert judgment.
- Get an in-depth perspective on the cm method theory
- Access optional modules about dependence elicitation and eliciting probabilities.
- By the end of the course all learners will be able to:
- Verified learners will have the added benefit of being able to:
- Recognize when and in which settings the classical model (cm) can be used for performing structured expert judgment
- Understand when to account for uncertainty assessments in complex decision-making context when data pose issues
- Know how cm can be used to analyze expert data and obtain answers to questions of interest
- Explore an optional idea protocol module, which uses a different method of performing structured expert judgment.
- Get an in-depth perspective on the cm method theory
- Access optional modules about dependence elicitation and eliciting probabilities.
- By the end of the course all learners will be able to:
- Verified learners will have the added benefit of being able to:
Syllabus
WEEK 1: Why and when to use SEJ?
WEEK 2: Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
WEEK 3: Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
Read more
Syllabus
WEEK 1: Why and when to use SEJ?
WEEK 2: Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
WEEK 3: Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
Read more
WEEK 4: Data analysis
WEEK 5: Applications of CM
WEEK 6: Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)
Good to know
Good to know
Know what's good ,
what to watch for , and
possible dealbreakers
Taught by experts in the field, this course offers a comprehensive examination of uncertainty quantification using expert opinion
Provides a practical understanding of Structured Expert Judgment techniques, including the Classical Model (CM) and Cooke's method
Explores various applications of expert opinion in decision-making, including climate change, disaster management, and public health
This course assumes a foundational understanding of statistics and probability
Requires learners to actively participate in discussions and complete assignments
Save this course
Save Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment to your list so you can find it easily later:
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Activities
Be better prepared
before
your course. Deepen your understanding
during
and
after
it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered
in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment with these
activities:
Review Basic Probability and Statistics Concepts
Show steps
Start by refreshing your memory on the basic statistical equations and theorems covered in probability courses
Browse courses on
Probability
Show steps
-
Review Notes from Prior Probability Courses
-
Watch Refresher Videos on Probability Distributions
-
Take Practice Quizzes on Hypothesis Testing
Review expert judgment techniques
Show steps
Prepare for the course materials by reviewing prior knowledge of expert judgment techniques.
Browse courses on
Expert Judgment
Show steps
-
Review textbooks and articles on expert judgment.
-
Attend a workshop or webinar on expert judgment.
-
Practice using expert judgment techniques on a simple problem.
Review the basics of statistics
Show steps
Review and practice statistical concepts to make the course's materials more accessible.
Browse courses on
Statistics
Show steps
-
Review your notes or textbooks from previous statistics or probability courses
-
Practice solving basic statistics problems to refresh your memory
11 other activities
Expand to see all activities and additional details
Show all 14 activities
Watch video tutorials on the course material
Show steps
Supplement your understanding of the course material with video tutorials.
Show steps
-
Find video tutorials related to the course topics
-
Watch the videos and take notes
-
Review the notes and identify any areas where you need further understanding
Work through practice problems
Show steps
Apply the concepts you've learned by completing practice problems.
Show steps
-
Find practice problems related to the course material
-
Complete the problems on your own, without looking at the solutions
-
Check your answers and identify any areas where you need further understanding
Attend an Expert Judgment Workshop
Show steps
Deepen understanding of the Classical Model (CM) and its applications by attending an in-person workshop.
Show steps
-
Attend a workshop led by Roger Cooke or other CM experts.
-
Apply CM to a case study or project.
Calibrate Expert Judgments Using a Monte Carlo Approach
Show steps
Practice calibrating the opinions of experts to help build your intuition for applying the classical model
Browse courses on
Structured Expert Judgment
Show steps
-
Install Necessary Python Libraries
-
Find Example Dataset and Import to Python
-
Run the Simulation
-
Interpret and Plot the Results
Join a study group for the course
Show steps
Collaborate with classmates to discuss the course topics and assignments.
Show steps
-
Find classmates who are interested in forming a study group
-
Regularly meet (virtually or face-to-face) to discuss the course material
-
Work together on assignments
Develop an Expert Judgment Protocol
Show steps
Solidify CM understanding by creating a detailed protocol for performing Structured Expert Judgment in a specific context.
Show steps
-
Identify the decision problem and stakeholders.
-
Define the expert elicitation goals.
-
Select and recruit experts.
-
Design the elicitation process.
-
Conduct the expert elicitation.
-
Analyze and interpret the expert judgments.
Create a presentation or infographic on a topic related to the course
Show steps
Demonstrate your understanding of the course material by creating a project that showcases your knowledge.
Show steps
-
Choose a topic related to the course material
-
Gather information and research your topic
-
Create a presentation or infographic that clearly explains your topic
-
Present your project to the class or share it with your classmates
-
Reflect on what you learned and how you could improve your project
Facilitate a Discussion on Expert Opinion Elicitation Methods
Show steps
Convey your understanding of expert opinion elicitation techniques and facilitate a discussion on using these methods in real-world applications
Browse courses on
Structured Expert Judgment
Show steps
-
Prepare an Overview of Expert Elicitation Methods
-
Identify a Case Study for Discussion
-
Moderate the Discussion
-
Summarize Key Points and Action Items
Apply CM to Real-World Problems
Show steps
Build confidence and proficiency by applying CM to address complex decision-making challenges in various domains.
Show steps
-
Identify a real-world problem that can benefit from expert judgment.
-
Apply CM to solve the problem and make a decision.
-
Evaluate the effectiveness of the CM application.
Explore Dependence Elicitation Techniques
Show steps
Expand knowledge by learning advanced dependence elicitation techniques used in CM.
Show steps
-
Review recommended tutorials or resources on dependence elicitation.
-
Apply the learned techniques to a CM application.
Develop a CM-Based Decision Support System
Show steps
Demonstrate mastery by creating a software tool or system that incorporates CM for decision support in a specific domain.
Show steps
-
Identify a decision-making context where CM can provide value.
-
Design and develop a CM-based decision support system.
-
Validate and test the system using real-world data.
-
Publish or present the system to relevant stakeholders.
Review Basic Probability and Statistics Concepts
Show steps
Start by refreshing your memory on the basic statistical equations and theorems covered in probability courses
Browse courses on
Probability
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Review Notes from Prior Probability Courses
- Watch Refresher Videos on Probability Distributions
- Take Practice Quizzes on Hypothesis Testing
Review expert judgment techniques
Show steps
Prepare for the course materials by reviewing prior knowledge of expert judgment techniques.
Browse courses on
Expert Judgment
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Review textbooks and articles on expert judgment.
- Attend a workshop or webinar on expert judgment.
- Practice using expert judgment techniques on a simple problem.
Review the basics of statistics
Show steps
Review and practice statistical concepts to make the course's materials more accessible.
Browse courses on
Statistics
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Review your notes or textbooks from previous statistics or probability courses
- Practice solving basic statistics problems to refresh your memory
11 other activities
Expand to see all activities and additional details
Show all 14 activities
Watch video tutorials on the course material
Show steps
Supplement your understanding of the course material with video tutorials.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Find video tutorials related to the course topics
- Watch the videos and take notes
- Review the notes and identify any areas where you need further understanding
Work through practice problems
Show steps
Apply the concepts you've learned by completing practice problems.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Find practice problems related to the course material
- Complete the problems on your own, without looking at the solutions
- Check your answers and identify any areas where you need further understanding
Attend an Expert Judgment Workshop
Show steps
Deepen understanding of the Classical Model (CM) and its applications by attending an in-person workshop.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Attend a workshop led by Roger Cooke or other CM experts.
- Apply CM to a case study or project.
Calibrate Expert Judgments Using a Monte Carlo Approach
Show steps
Practice calibrating the opinions of experts to help build your intuition for applying the classical model
Browse courses on
Structured Expert Judgment
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Install Necessary Python Libraries
- Find Example Dataset and Import to Python
- Run the Simulation
- Interpret and Plot the Results
Join a study group for the course
Show steps
Collaborate with classmates to discuss the course topics and assignments.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Find classmates who are interested in forming a study group
- Regularly meet (virtually or face-to-face) to discuss the course material
- Work together on assignments
Develop an Expert Judgment Protocol
Show steps
Solidify CM understanding by creating a detailed protocol for performing Structured Expert Judgment in a specific context.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Identify the decision problem and stakeholders.
- Define the expert elicitation goals.
- Select and recruit experts.
- Design the elicitation process.
- Conduct the expert elicitation.
- Analyze and interpret the expert judgments.
Create a presentation or infographic on a topic related to the course
Show steps
Demonstrate your understanding of the course material by creating a project that showcases your knowledge.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Choose a topic related to the course material
- Gather information and research your topic
- Create a presentation or infographic that clearly explains your topic
- Present your project to the class or share it with your classmates
- Reflect on what you learned and how you could improve your project
Facilitate a Discussion on Expert Opinion Elicitation Methods
Show steps
Convey your understanding of expert opinion elicitation techniques and facilitate a discussion on using these methods in real-world applications
Browse courses on
Structured Expert Judgment
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Prepare an Overview of Expert Elicitation Methods
- Identify a Case Study for Discussion
- Moderate the Discussion
- Summarize Key Points and Action Items
Apply CM to Real-World Problems
Show steps
Build confidence and proficiency by applying CM to address complex decision-making challenges in various domains.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Identify a real-world problem that can benefit from expert judgment.
- Apply CM to solve the problem and make a decision.
- Evaluate the effectiveness of the CM application.
Explore Dependence Elicitation Techniques
Show steps
Expand knowledge by learning advanced dependence elicitation techniques used in CM.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Review recommended tutorials or resources on dependence elicitation.
- Apply the learned techniques to a CM application.
Develop a CM-Based Decision Support System
Show steps
Demonstrate mastery by creating a software tool or system that incorporates CM for decision support in a specific domain.
Show steps
Show steps
Show steps
- Identify a decision-making context where CM can provide value.
- Design and develop a CM-based decision support system.
- Validate and test the system using real-world data.
- Publish or present the system to relevant stakeholders.
Career center
Learners who complete Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment will develop knowledge and skills
that may be useful to these careers:
Data Scientist
Data Scientist
**Data Scientists** use complex techniques to analyze and interpret data, providing businesses with insights that can help them make better decisions. This course, Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment, provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the data-driven world. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Data Scientists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their data analysis and make more informed recommendations.
Operations Research Analyst
Operations Research Analyst
**Operations Research Analysts** use mathematical and analytical techniques to help organizations make better decisions. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of operations research. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Operations Research Analysts can improve the accuracy and reliability of their models and make more informed recommendations.
Risk Analyst
Risk Analyst
**Risk Analysts** identify, assess, and mitigate risks to help organizations make better decisions. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of risk analysis. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Risk Analysts can improve the accuracy and reliability of their risk assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Actuary
Actuary
**Actuaries** use mathematical and statistical techniques to assess risk and uncertainty. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of actuarial science. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Actuaries can improve the accuracy and reliability of their risk assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Epidemiologist
Epidemiologist
**Epidemiologists** study the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of epidemiology. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Epidemiologists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their epidemiological studies and make more informed recommendations.
Market Research Analyst
Market Research Analyst
**Market Research Analysts** study the market for a product or service to determine its potential success. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of market research. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Market Research Analysts can improve the accuracy and reliability of their market research studies and make more informed recommendations.
Environmental Scientist
Environmental Scientist
**Environmental Scientists** study the environment and the impact of human activities on the environment. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of environmental science. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Environmental Scientists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their environmental assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Human Factors Engineer
Human Factors Engineer
**Human Factors Engineers** design products and systems that are easy and safe for people to use. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of human factors engineering. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Human Factors Engineers can improve the accuracy and reliability of their human factors assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Environmental Consultant
Environmental Consultant
**Environmental Consultants** help organizations comply with environmental regulations and improve their environmental performance. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of environmental consulting. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Environmental Consultants can improve the accuracy and reliability of their environmental assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Climate Scientist
Climate Scientist
**Climate Scientists** study the climate system and the impact of human activities on the climate. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of climate science. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Climate Scientists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their climate models and make more informed recommendations.
Public Health Scientist
Public Health Scientist
**Public Health Scientists** study the health of populations and the factors that affect health. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of public health. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Public Health Scientists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their public health assessments and make more informed recommendations.
Management Consultant
Management Consultant
**Management Consultants** help organizations improve their performance. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of management consulting. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Management Consultants can improve the accuracy and reliability of their consulting recommendations and make more informed recommendations.
Decision Scientist
Decision Scientist
**Decision Scientists** help organizations make better decisions. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of decision science. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Decision Scientists can improve the accuracy and reliability of their decision-making models and make more informed recommendations.
Statistician
Statistician
**Statisticians** collect, analyze, interpret, and present data. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of statistics. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Statisticians can improve the accuracy and reliability of their statistical analyses and make more informed recommendations.
Financial Analyst
Financial Analyst
**Financial Analysts** study the financial performance of companies and make recommendations on investment decisions. This course provides a foundation in the use of expert opinion for uncertainty quantification, a skill that is increasingly important in the field of financial analysis. By learning how to elicit and analyze expert opinion, Financial Analysts can improve the accuracy and reliability of their financial analyses and make more informed recommendations.
For more career information including salaries, visit:
OpenCourser.com/course/e50azk/decision
Reading list
We've selected 13 books
that we think will supplement your
learning. Use these to
develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a
deeper understanding of the topics covered in
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment.
Comprehensive guide to the Classical Model (CM) method of structured expert judgment. It provides a detailed overview of the theory and practice of CM, and includes numerous examples and case studies.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the use of expert judgment in Bayesian analysis. It covers a wide range of topics, including the elicitation of expert opinions, the assessment of expert reliability, and the use of expert judgment in decision-making.
Provides a comprehensive overview of probability and statistics. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in these topics.
Save
Provides a gentle introduction to Bayesian statistics. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who are new to this topic.
Provides a comprehensive overview of statistics for social scientists. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Provides a comprehensive overview of data analysis for business and economics. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Save
Provides a comprehensive overview of econometrics. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Provides a comprehensive overview of decision analysis for management. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Save
Provides a comprehensive overview of risk analysis and decision making. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Save
Provides a comprehensive overview of the art of decision making. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need to improve their decision-making skills.
Provides a comprehensive overview of judgment and decision making. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need to improve their judgment and decision-making skills.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. It valuable resource for students and practitioners who need a strong foundation in this topic.
For more information about how these books relate to this course, visit:
OpenCourser.com/course/e50azk/decision
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Effort
4 to 6 hours per week for 6 weeks
Level
Introductory
Via
edX
Institution
Delft University of Technology
Instructors
Tina Nane
Anca Hanea
Roger Cooke
Session
February 14, 2024
- December 11, 2024
Language
English
Transcript
English
Good to know
Taught by experts in the field, this course offers a comprehensive examination of uncertainty quantification using expert opinion
Provides a practical understanding of Structured Expert Judgment techniques, including the Classical Model (CM) and Cooke's method
Explores various applications of expert opinion in decision-making, including climate change, disaster management, and public health
This course assumes a foundational understanding of statistics and probability
Requires learners to actively participate in discussions and complete assignments
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