The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism from edX

Is the threat of nuclear terrorism real? Listen to Graham Allison, Martha Crenshaw, David Holloway and Joe Martz as they investigate the evidence with myself and selected Stanford students. What would be the consequences of a nuclear terror attack? The scenario is difficult to imagine, but Alex Wellerstein and Lynn Eden help me and our students understand just what could happen if the worst case occurs, and how we can work to limit the damage. What can we do to prevent or mitigate this risk? Participate as I explore this crucial question with the help of Stephen Flynn, Rachel Bronson, Valerie Plame Wilson, Ellen Tauscher and Jeffrey Lewis.

With the expert help of Stanford Online, we are able to bring to you this unprecedented group of experts from a wide variety of fields, who share a strong commitment to the urgency of educating people on this important topic. In some of the sessions, you will also hear students actively participating in the conversation. You’ll be exposed to a profound and sometimes disturbing body of research and information, and challenged to find a path forward out of this predicament.

We do not have required reading, but under Additional Resources you will find numerous books, articles, web links and videos to enhance your experience. In addition, we offer a "Nukes in the News" section to add topicality. The more you participate, the more you will get out of your experience.

Our course differs from most online courses in a fundamental way: our goal is not just to provide facts, but to inspire you to take action. You have the power to make a difference, and I believe this course will give you knowledge and hopefully motivation to do so. You can read more about the subject, and find ways to become involved, by visiting the website of the William J. Perry Project: www.wjperryproject.org.

What's inside

Learning objectives

Course instructors
Dr. william j. perry was the 19th secretary of defense for the united states, serving from february 1994 to january 1997. he previously served as deputy secretary of defense (1993-1994) and as under secretary of defense for research and engineering (1977-1981). dr. perry is the michael and barbara berberian professor (emeritus) at stanford university. he is a senior fellow at the freeman spogli institute and the hoover institution, and he serves as director of the preventive defense project. in 2013, dr. perry founded the william j. perry project (www.wjperryproject.org) to engage and educate the public on the dangers of nuclear weapons in the 21st century.
Graham allison is the douglas dillon professor of government at harvard’s kennedy school and former director of the belfer center for science and international affairs. he is a leading analyst of u.s. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism, and decision-making. his latest book, destined for war: can america and china escape thucydides’s trap?, was published by houghton mifflin harcourt in may 2017 and quickly became a national bestseller. dr. allison served as assistant secretary of defense in the first clinton administration and as special advisor to the secretary of defense under president reagan. he has the sole distinction of having twice been awarded the department of defense's highest civilian award, the distinguished public service medal, first by secretary cap weinberger and second by secretary bill perry.
Dr. rachel bronson is the executive director and publisher of the bulletin of the atomic scientists where she oversees the publishing programs, the management of the doomsday clock, and a growing set of activities around nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, climate change and emerging technologies. she is the author of thicker than oil: america’s uneasy partnership with saudi arabia (oxford press, 2006). her writings have appeared in publication such as foreign policy, foreign affairs, the national interest, the new york times, the washington post, huffington post, and the chicago tribune. dr. bronson has testified before the congressional anti-terrorist finance task force, congress’ joint economic committee, and the 9/11 commission.
Dr. martha crenshaw is a senior fellow at stanford’s center for international security and cooperation and freeman spogli institute and a professor of political science by courtesy at stanford. she is a world-renowned expert on political terrorism. in recognition of her work, the national science foundation/department of defense minerva initiative awarded dr. crenshaw a grant for a project on "mapping terrorist organizations" (see mappingmilitants.stanford.edu). in 2011, routledge published explaining terrorism, a collection of dr. crenshaw's previously published writings. most recently, she co-authored a book with gary lafree titled, countering terrorism.
Dr. lynn eden is a senior research scholar emerita. she was a senior research scholar at stanford university's center for international security and cooperation until january 2016, as well as the associate director for research. dr. eden's book, whole world on fire: organizations, knowledge, and nuclear weapons devastation, explores how and why the u.s. government--from world war ii to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. whole world on fire won the american sociological association's 2004 robert k. merton award for the best book in science, knowledge, and technology.
Dr. stephen flynn is founding director of the global resilience institute at northeastern university (https://globalresilience.northeastern.edu/) where he leads a university-wide research enterprise to inform and advance societal resilience. at northeastern, he is also a professor of political science with affiliated faculty appointments in the college of engineering and the school of public policy and urban affairs. dr. flynn is recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on both critical infrastructure and supply chain security and resilience. among his most influential publications are the critically acclaimed the edge of disaster: rebuilding a resilient nation and the national bestseller america the vulnerable: how government is failing to protect us from terrorism.

Dr. david holloway is the raymond a. spruance professor of international history, a professor of political science, and a freeman spogli institute senior fellow at stanford university. he is an expert on the development of the soviet nuclear program and has published widely on this subject. his book, stalin and the bomb: the soviet union and atomic energy, 1939-1956 (yale university press, 1994), was chosen by the new york times book review as one of the eleven best books of 1994, and it won the vucinich and shulman prizes of the american association for the advancement of slavic studies.
Dr. jeffrey lewis is the director of the east asia nonproliferation program at the middlebury institute of international studies at monterey. previously, dr. lewis served as the executive director of the managing the atom project at the belfer center for science and international affairs, executive director of the association of professional schools of international affairs, a visiting fellow at the center for strategic and international studies, and a desk officer in the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy. he is also a research scholar at the center for international and security studies at the university of maryland's school of public policy (cissm).
Dr. joseph martz is a physicist and 35-year employee of los alamos national laboratory, who has focused on issues surrounding nuclear security, nuclear weapons, and stockpile stewardship. his early work led to a nationwide evaluation and repackaging of stored nuclear materials, and he was a co-developer of the aries system, a means to dismantle and safely recover plutonium from excess nuclear weapons. in addition to his research at los alamos, dr. martz has led national project teams, including the recent reliable-replacement warhead design competition and several complex nuclear material experiments.
Ellen o’kane tauscher represented california’s 10th congressional district in the east bay of san francisco for seven terms from 1997-2009. she served on the house armed services committee and was chair of the strategic forces subcommittee, overseeing the nuclear weapons stockpile and complex, among other forces, from 2006-2009. in 2009, tauscher was nominated by president barack obama and confirmed by the united states senate as under secretary of state for arms control and international security affairs. as under secretary of state, tauscher was responsible for successfully closing negotiations of the new start treaty with the russian federation in march 2010 in geneva and representing the united states at the non-proliferation treaty review conference at the united nations in may 2010.
Dr. alex wellerstein is an assistant professor of science and technology studies (sts) in the college of arts and letters at the stevens institute of technology in hoboken, new jersey. dr. wellerstein has been an associate historian (a postdoctoral position) at the center for the history of physics at the american institute of physics, as well as a postdoctoral fellow at the managing the atom project (mta) and the international security program at the belfer center for science and international affairs, harvard kennedy school of government.
Valerie plame wilson : as a former career covert cia operations officer, valerie plame wilson worked to protect america’s national security and prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, in particular nuclear weapons. during her career with the cia, valerie managed top-secret covert programs designed to keep terrorists and rogue nation states from acquiring nuclear weapons. her position involved decision-making at senior levels, recruiting foreign assets, deploying resources around the world, managing multi-million dollar budgets, briefing u.s. policymakers, and demonstrating consistently solid judgment in a field where mistakes could prove disastrous to national security.

Course instructors
Dr. william j. perry was the 19th secretary of defense for the united states, serving from february 1994 to january 1997. he previously served as deputy secretary of defense (1993-1994) and as under secretary of defense for research and engineering (1977-1981). dr. perry is the michael and barbara berberian professor (emeritus) at stanford university. he is a senior fellow at the freeman spogli institute and the hoover institution, and he serves as director of the preventive defense project. in 2013, dr. perry founded the william j. perry project (www.wjperryproject.org) to engage and educate the public on the dangers of nuclear weapons in the 21st century.
Graham allison is the douglas dillon professor of government at harvard’s kennedy school and former director of the belfer center for science and international affairs. he is a leading analyst of u.s. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism, and decision-making. his latest book, destined for war: can america and china escape thucydides’s trap?, was published by houghton mifflin harcourt in may 2017 and quickly became a national bestseller. dr. allison served as assistant secretary of defense in the first clinton administration and as special advisor to the secretary of defense under president reagan. he has the sole distinction of having twice been awarded the department of defense's highest civilian award, the distinguished public service medal, first by secretary cap weinberger and second by secretary bill perry.
Dr. rachel bronson is the executive director and publisher of the bulletin of the atomic scientists where she oversees the publishing programs, the management of the doomsday clock, and a growing set of activities around nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, climate change and emerging technologies. she is the author of thicker than oil: america’s uneasy partnership with saudi arabia (oxford press, 2006). her writings have appeared in publication such as foreign policy, foreign affairs, the national interest, the new york times, the washington post, huffington post, and the chicago tribune. dr. bronson has testified before the congressional anti-terrorist finance task force, congress’ joint economic committee, and the 9/11 commission.
Dr. martha crenshaw is a senior fellow at stanford’s center for international security and cooperation and freeman spogli institute and a professor of political science by courtesy at stanford. she is a world-renowned expert on political terrorism. in recognition of her work, the national science foundation/department of defense minerva initiative awarded dr. crenshaw a grant for a project on "mapping terrorist organizations" (see mappingmilitants.stanford.edu). in 2011, routledge published explaining terrorism, a collection of dr. crenshaw's previously published writings. most recently, she co-authored a book with gary lafree titled, countering terrorism.
Dr. lynn eden is a senior research scholar emerita. she was a senior research scholar at stanford university's center for international security and cooperation until january 2016, as well as the associate director for research. dr. eden's book, whole world on fire: organizations, knowledge, and nuclear weapons devastation, explores how and why the u.s. government--from world war ii to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. whole world on fire won the american sociological association's 2004 robert k. merton award for the best book in science, knowledge, and technology.
Dr. stephen flynn is founding director of the global resilience institute at northeastern university (https://globalresilience.northeastern.edu/) where he leads a university-wide research enterprise to inform and advance societal resilience. at northeastern, he is also a professor of political science with affiliated faculty appointments in the college of engineering and the school of public policy and urban affairs. dr. flynn is recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on both critical infrastructure and supply chain security and resilience. among his most influential publications are the critically acclaimed the edge of disaster: rebuilding a resilient nation and the national bestseller america the vulnerable: how government is failing to protect us from terrorism.
Dr. david holloway is the raymond a. spruance professor of international history, a professor of political science, and a freeman spogli institute senior fellow at stanford university. he is an expert on the development of the soviet nuclear program and has published widely on this subject. his book, stalin and the bomb: the soviet union and atomic energy, 1939-1956 (yale university press, 1994), was chosen by the new york times book review as one of the eleven best books of 1994, and it won the vucinich and shulman prizes of the american association for the advancement of slavic studies.
Dr. jeffrey lewis is the director of the east asia nonproliferation program at the middlebury institute of international studies at monterey. previously, dr. lewis served as the executive director of the managing the atom project at the belfer center for science and international affairs, executive director of the association of professional schools of international affairs, a visiting fellow at the center for strategic and international studies, and a desk officer in the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy. he is also a research scholar at the center for international and security studies at the university of maryland's school of public policy (cissm).
Dr. joseph martz is a physicist and 35-year employee of los alamos national laboratory, who has focused on issues surrounding nuclear security, nuclear weapons, and stockpile stewardship. his early work led to a nationwide evaluation and repackaging of stored nuclear materials, and he was a co-developer of the aries system, a means to dismantle and safely recover plutonium from excess nuclear weapons. in addition to his research at los alamos, dr. martz has led national project teams, including the recent reliable-replacement warhead design competition and several complex nuclear material experiments.
Ellen o’kane tauscher represented california’s 10th congressional district in the east bay of san francisco for seven terms from 1997-2009. she served on the house armed services committee and was chair of the strategic forces subcommittee, overseeing the nuclear weapons stockpile and complex, among other forces, from 2006-2009. in 2009, tauscher was nominated by president barack obama and confirmed by the united states senate as under secretary of state for arms control and international security affairs. as under secretary of state, tauscher was responsible for successfully closing negotiations of the new start treaty with the russian federation in march 2010 in geneva and representing the united states at the non-proliferation treaty review conference at the united nations in may 2010.
Dr. alex wellerstein is an assistant professor of science and technology studies (sts) in the college of arts and letters at the stevens institute of technology in hoboken, new jersey. dr. wellerstein has been an associate historian (a postdoctoral position) at the center for the history of physics at the american institute of physics, as well as a postdoctoral fellow at the managing the atom project (mta) and the international security program at the belfer center for science and international affairs, harvard kennedy school of government.
Valerie plame wilson : as a former career covert cia operations officer, valerie plame wilson worked to protect america’s national security and prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, in particular nuclear weapons. during her career with the cia, valerie managed top-secret covert programs designed to keep terrorists and rogue nation states from acquiring nuclear weapons. her position involved decision-making at senior levels, recruiting foreign assets, deploying resources around the world, managing multi-million dollar budgets, briefing u.s. policymakers, and demonstrating consistently solid judgment in a field where mistakes could prove disastrous to national security.

Syllabus

Week 1: Who Are the Terrorists? What Do They Want?

Dr. William J. Perry, Dr. Graham Allison, Dr. Martha Crenshaw

Week 2: What Are the Historical and Contemporary Security Issues with Nuclear Weapons and Materials?

Dr. William J. Perry, Dr. Graham Allison, Dr. David Holloway, Valerie Plame Wilson

Week 3: Could a Terrorist Group Make a Nuclear Bomb? If a Terrorist Group Made an Improvised Nuclear Device, Could They Deliver It to One of Our Cities?

Dr. William J. Perry, Dr. Stephen Flynn, Dr. Joseph Martz

Week 4: What Would Be the Consequences of an Improvised Nuclear Device's Detonation in a U.S. City?

Dr. William J. Perry, Dr. Lynn Eden, Dr. Alex Wellerstein

Week 5: What Has Been Done to Lower the Likelihood of a Nuclear Terror Event, or to Mitigate the Damage if We Experience One?

Dr. William J. Perry, Dr. Graham Allison, Dr. Rachel Bronson, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Rep. Ellen Tauscher

Good to know

Know what's good

, what to watch for

, and possible dealbreakers

Taught by experts recognized for their work in these fields

Combines academic and industry perspectives

Provides both foundational and advanced knowledge on nuclear terrorism

May be too technical for learners without a background in nuclear science

Requires active participation and discussion

Covers sensitive and potentially disturbing topics

Reviews summary

Avoid this course

According to students, this course fails to meet expectations as it focuses primarily on the aftermath of nuclear attacks in the United States while neglecting other important aspects of nuclear terrorism. The course is reportedly led by retired politicians, which some learners find boring and not very engaging. As such, this course may not be suitable for those seeking a comprehensive understanding of the threat of nuclear terrorism.

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism with these activities:

Review probability and statistics

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Refresh foundational skills in probability and statistics to enhance comprehension of risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in nuclear security

Browse courses on Probability

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Revisit materials from previous coursework or textbooks covering probability and statistics
Practice solving problems involving probability distributions, sampling, and hypothesis testing

Read 'The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner'

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Gain insights into the history, strategies, and potential consequences of nuclear warfare

View The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear... on Amazon

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Review basic nuclear physics

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Acquire familiarity with fundamental principles of nuclear physics to strengthen understanding of course material

Browse courses on Nuclear Physics

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Revisit materials from introductory physics courses or textbooks covering nuclear physics
Seek out online resources or videos summarizing key concepts in nuclear physics
Attend a workshop or refresher course on nuclear physics

Three other activities

Expand to see all activities and additional details

Show all six activities

Solve nuclear chain reaction problems

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Develop problem-solving skills in nuclear reactions and improve quantitative understanding

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Find practice problems or exercises on nuclear chain reactions
Work through these problems, applying principles learned in the course
Compare solutions with peers or instructors to identify errors and reinforce understanding

Participate in a study group on nuclear proliferation

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Engage in collaborative learning and discussions to deepen understanding and broaden perspectives on nuclear proliferation

Browse courses on Nuclear Proliferation

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Join or form a study group with peers
Assign roles and responsibilities for research, presentations, and discussions
Regularly meet to share research findings, engage in debates, and analyze case studies

Write a blog post on the role of nuclear weapons in modern warfare

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Synthesize and communicate understanding by analyzing the complex issues surrounding nuclear weapons in contemporary conflicts

Browse courses on Nuclear Weapons

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Research and gather information on nuclear weapons and their role in modern warfare
Organize and outline key points, arguments, and evidence
Write a well-structured and engaging blog post, presenting a clear and informed perspective
Proofread and edit the post for clarity, accuracy, and flow

Career center

Learners who complete The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Nuclear Security Specialist

Nuclear Security Specialists develop and implement security measures to protect nuclear materials and facilities from theft, sabotage, or terrorism. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, nuclear power plants, and nuclear waste disposal facilities. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Nuclear Security Specialists understand the potential threats to nuclear security and how to develop effective measures to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Nuclear Security Specialist

Nuclear Engineer

Nuclear Engineers design and develop nuclear power systems and components, including nuclear reactors, fuel, and waste disposal systems. They also work on safety and environmental issues related to nuclear power. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Nuclear Engineers understand the potential risks and consequences of nuclear terrorism and how to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Nuclear Engineer

Nuclear Policy Analyst

Nuclear Policy Analysts develop and analyze policies related to nuclear weapons and nuclear power. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and non-profit organizations. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Nuclear Policy Analysts understand the complex issues surrounding nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective policies to address them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Nuclear Policy Analyst

Nuclear Physicist

Nuclear Physicists study the structure, properties, and interactions of atomic nuclei and subatomic particles. They work on a variety of projects, including developing new nuclear technologies, studying the origins of the universe, and designing nuclear weapons. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Nuclear Physicists understand the potential risks and consequences of nuclear terrorism and how to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Nuclear Physicist

Nonproliferation Specialist

Nonproliferation Specialists work to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and non-profit organizations. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Nonproliferation Specialists understand the complex issues surrounding nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective strategies to prevent it.

See salaries and explore the career path for Nonproliferation Specialist

Risk Manager

Risk Managers identify, assess, and manage risks to organizations. They work for a variety of organizations, including businesses, insurance companies, and government agencies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Risk Managers understand the potential risks of nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective strategies to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Risk Manager

Intelligence Analyst

Intelligence Analysts collect, analyze, and interpret information about foreign countries, governments, and individuals. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and private companies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Intelligence Analysts understand the potential threats posed by nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective strategies to counter them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Intelligence Analyst

Public Policy Analyst

Public Policy Analysts develop and analyze policies on a variety of issues, including education, healthcare, and environmental protection. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and non-profit organizations. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Public Policy Analysts understand the complex issues surrounding nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective policies to address them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Public Policy Analyst

Emergency Manager

Emergency Managers develop and implement plans to prepare for and respond to emergencies, including natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and nuclear accidents. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, non-profit organizations, and private companies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Emergency Managers understand the potential risks and consequences of nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective plans to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Emergency Manager

Homeland Security Analyst

Homeland Security Analysts develop and implement policies and programs to protect the United States from terrorism and other threats. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and private companies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Homeland Security Analysts understand the potential risks and consequences of nuclear terrorism and how to develop effective strategies to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Homeland Security Analyst

Environmental Scientist

Environmental Scientists study the environment and its components, including air, water, soil, and living organisms. They work on a variety of projects, including developing environmental regulations, studying the effects of pollution, and cleaning up contaminated sites. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Environmental Scientists understand the potential environmental impacts of nuclear terrorism and how to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Environmental Scientist

Urban Planner

Urban Planners develop plans for the development and use of land in urban areas. They work for a variety of organizations, including government agencies, non-profit organizations, and private companies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Urban Planners understand the potential impacts of nuclear terrorism on urban areas and how to develop plans to mitigate them.

See salaries and explore the career path for Urban Planner

Teacher

Teachers educate students at all levels, from preschool to college. They develop lesson plans, teach classes, and assess student learning. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Teachers understand the complex issues surrounding nuclear terrorism and how to teach about it in a responsible and accurate way.

See salaries and explore the career path for Teacher

Journalist

Journalists gather, write, and report on news and current events. They work for a variety of organizations, including newspapers, magazines, television networks, and websites. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Journalists understand the complex issues surrounding nuclear terrorism and how to report on it in a responsible and accurate way.

See salaries and explore the career path for Journalist

Law Enforcement Officer

Law Enforcement Officers enforce the law and protect the public. They work for a variety of organizations, including local police departments, state police agencies, and federal law enforcement agencies. The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism can help Law Enforcement Officers understand the potential risks and consequences of nuclear terrorism and how to respond to it.

See salaries and explore the career path for Law Enforcement Officer