Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively from Coursera

Want to solve a murder mystery? What caused your computer to fail? Who can you trust in your everyday life? In this course, you will learn how to analyze and assess five common forms of inductive arguments: generalizations from samples, applications of generalizations, inference to the best explanation, arguments from analogy, and causal reasoning. The course closes by showing how you can use probability to help make decisions of all sorts.

Syllabus

Welcome to the Course

Welcome to Think Again: How to Reason Inductively! This course is the third in the specialization Introduction to Logic and Critical Thinking, based on our original Coursera course titled Think Again: How to Reason and Argue. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn. In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "Introduction to the Specialization" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later.

Inductive Arguments

CONTENT: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:

distinguish inductive from deductive arguments
classify inductive arguments into five kinds
identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples
identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases
identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet
identify and evaluate arguments from analogy

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapters 8 and 9.

Causal Reasoning

CONTENT: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do:

analyze causal reasoning
distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions
determine what is necessary or sufficient for what
separate causation from correlation

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapter 10.

Chance and Choice

CONTENT: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do:

solve some classic paradoxes of probability
apply simple rules of probability
use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities
avoid fallacies of probability
apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values
distinguish financial value from overall value
use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapters 11 and 12

Catch-Up and Final Quiz

This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time.

We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences.

Good to know

Know what's good

, what to watch for

, and possible dealbreakers

May interest students and professionals who want to improve their ability to analyze and evaluate arguments in a variety of settings

Content is offered through video segments

Exercises are included throughout the course

Weekly graded quizzes assess understanding

Students are expected to come in with knowledge of informal logic and basic mathematics

The software version the course uses is older than 2022

Reviews summary

Positive course on inductive reasoning

Learners say that Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively is a positive course that helps students develop inductive reasoning skills. The course is well-structured and engaging, with clear explanations and real-world examples. Walter Sinnott-Armstrong is praised for being an excellent instructor who makes the material easy to understand. Overall, students find the course to be valuable and recommend it to others.

Course provides real-world examples to illustrate concepts.

"The course provides real-world examples."

"I was able to apply the concepts to my own life."

"The examples made the material more relevant."

Content is engaging and fun to learn from.

"The course is fun and educational."

"Walter Sinnott-Armstrong is a great lecturer."

"I enjoyed the hands-on exercises."

Explanations from instructor are easy to understand.

"Walter Sinnott-Armstrong is an excellent instructor."

"The explanations are clear and concise."

"I was able to understand the material easily."

Course helps with learning inductive reasoning skills.

"Learned a lot about inductive reasoning."

"I learned to avoid jumping to conclusions."

"This course has helped me to think more critically."

Course material may be challenging for some learners.

"The course is a bit challenging."

"Some of the concepts were difficult to understand."

"I had to spend a lot of time studying the material."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively with these activities:

Review 'Understanding Arguments'

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Enhance your understanding of inductive reasoning and related concepts by reviewing a recommended textbook that provides a comprehensive overview of informal logic.

View Cengage Advantage Books: Understanding... on Amazon

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Obtain a copy of the book 'Understanding Arguments: An Introduction to Informal Logic'.
Review the chapters and sections relevant to the course material on inductive reasoning.
Take notes, highlight key concepts, and engage with the exercises provided in the book.
Discuss the book's content with classmates or the instructor to deepen your understanding.

Create a Causal Reasoning Diagram

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Visualize and analyze causal relationships by creating a diagram that depicts the proposed cause-and-effect relationships discussed in the course.

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Identify a specific causal relationship or scenario from the course material.
Draw a diagram using arrows or other symbols to represent the variables and their hypothesized causal connections.
Label the variables and explain the direction of the causal effects.
Analyze the diagram to identify any potential flaws or alternative explanations.
Share your diagram with others for feedback and discussion.

Participate in Argument Evaluation Peer Group

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Engage in peer discussions to evaluate and critique inductive arguments, fostering collaborative learning and improving your analytical skills.

Browse courses on Inductive Reasoning

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Form or join a small peer group with fellow students.
Select inductive arguments to analyze and discuss, such as those presented in the course material or from real-world examples.
Present your analysis and critique of the arguments to the group.
Listen attentively to others' perspectives and engage in constructive discussions.
Reflect on the feedback received and revise your own understanding and evaluation of the arguments.

Four other activities

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Practice Inductive Reasoning Examples

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Practice identifying and evaluating inductive arguments to strengthen your understanding and application of this reasoning method.

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Review the different types of inductive arguments covered in the course.
Find examples of inductive arguments in various sources such as news articles, research papers, or everyday conversations.
Analyze the examples and identify the type of inductive argument used.
Evaluate the strength and validity of the arguments by applying the criteria discussed in the course.

Explore Bayes' Theorem Tutorial

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Delve deeper into Bayes' Theorem and conditional probability through a guided tutorial, improving your understanding and application of these concepts.

Browse courses on Bayes' Theorem

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Find a reputable tutorial on Bayes' Theorem and conditional probability.
Follow the tutorial step-by-step, taking notes and actively engaging with the material.
Work through the examples provided in the tutorial to practice applying Bayes' Theorem.
Test your understanding by solving additional problems or exercises related to Bayes' Theorem.

Develop an Inductive Reasoning Toolkit

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Create a comprehensive toolkit that includes resources, templates, and guidelines for applying inductive reasoning techniques effectively.

Browse courses on Inductive Reasoning

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Gather and organize materials related to inductive reasoning, such as course notes, articles, and examples.
Design templates for analyzing and evaluating different types of inductive arguments.
Develop guidelines for applying inductive reasoning principles in various contexts.
Include resources for further learning and reference on inductive reasoning.
Share your toolkit with others for feedback and potential collaboration.

Contribute to Open-Source Argument Analysis Tool

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Engage with the open-source community by contributing to the development of a tool that assists in analyzing and evaluating inductive arguments.

Browse courses on Inductive Reasoning

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Identify an open-source project focused on argument analysis or reasoning.
Review the project's codebase and documentation to understand its functionality.
Propose a feature or improvement related to inductive reasoning and discuss it with the project maintainers.
Implement the proposed feature or improvement by contributing code to the project.
Collaborate with other contributors and provide support to users.

Career center

Learners who complete Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Statistician

A Statistician collects, analyzes, and interprets data to provide insights and make predictions. They use statistical techniques to design experiments, analyze data, and draw conclusions. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Statisticians as it teaches them how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions and how to evaluate the validity of different statistical methods.

See salaries and explore the career path for Statistician

Actuary

An Actuary uses mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk and uncertainty in the insurance and finance industries. They develop and price insurance products, manage investment portfolios, and provide advice on risk management strategies. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Actuaries as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Epidemiologist

An Epidemiologist investigates the causes and patterns of disease outbreaks and other health-related events. They use statistical methods and other techniques to identify risk factors, develop prevention strategies, and monitor the effectiveness of public health interventions. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Epidemiologists as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

See salaries and explore the career path for Epidemiologist

Risk Manager

A Risk Manager identifies, analyzes, and mitigates risks to an organization. They develop and implement risk management strategies to protect the organization from financial, operational, and reputational risks. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Risk Managers as it teaches them how to assess risks, identify potential threats, and develop effective risk management plans.

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Forensic Scientist

A Forensic Scientist analyzes evidence to help solve crimes. They use scientific methods to examine physical evidence, such as DNA, fingerprints, and ballistics, to determine the facts of a case. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Forensic Scientists as it teaches them how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions and how to evaluate the validity of different arguments.

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Intelligence Analyst

An Intelligence Analyst collects, analyzes, and interprets information to provide insights into national security threats and other issues. They use a variety of sources, including human intelligence, signals intelligence, and open-source information, to develop assessments and recommendations for policymakers. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Intelligence Analysts as it teaches them how to assess information, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Data Scientist

A Data Scientist analyzes and interprets large datasets to extract meaningful insights and patterns. They use statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms to identify trends, develop predictive models, and solve complex business problems. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Data Scientists as it teaches them how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions and how to evaluate the validity of different arguments.

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Sociologist

A Sociologist studies human social behavior and institutions. They use research methods to investigate topics such as social inequality, crime, and education. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Sociologists as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Psychologist

A Psychologist studies human behavior and mental processes. They use research methods to investigate topics such as learning, memory, and emotion. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Psychologists as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Economist

An Economist analyzes economic data and trends to understand how economies work. They use this knowledge to develop policies and make recommendations on issues such as taxation, inflation, and unemployment. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Economists as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Market Research Analyst

A Market Research Analyst conducts research to gather data and insights about consumer trends, demographics, and market conditions. They use this information to help businesses make informed decisions about product development, marketing campaigns, and overall business strategy. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Market Research Analysts as it teaches them how to analyze data, identify patterns, and draw conclusions from their research.

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Journalist

A Journalist gathers, analyzes, and reports on news and current events. They use a variety of sources to investigate stories and develop articles, broadcasts, or other forms of media. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Journalists as it teaches them how to evaluate the validity of different sources and how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions..

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Business Analyst

A Business Analyst analyzes business processes, systems, and data to identify areas for improvement. They work with stakeholders to define requirements, develop solutions, and implement changes that enhance efficiency and effectiveness. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Business Analysts as it teaches them how to gather and analyze data, identify problems, and develop logical solutions.

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Lawyer

A Lawyer advises clients on legal matters and represents them in court. They use their knowledge of the law to develop legal arguments and strategies. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Lawyers as it teaches them how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions and how to evaluate the validity of different arguments.

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Teacher

A Teacher develops and delivers lesson plans to educate students in a variety of subjects. They use a variety of teaching methods to engage students and help them learn. This course on inductive reasoning can be helpful for Teachers as it teaches them how to reason from specific observations to general conclusions and how to evaluate the validity of different arguments.

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