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Sella Nevo and Dan Lahav

Climate Change, Nuclear War, Man-made Pandemics, The rise of AI – Humanity has never been more capable, and yet it has never been more at risk.

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Climate Change, Nuclear War, Man-made Pandemics, The rise of AI – Humanity has never been more capable, and yet it has never been more at risk.

This course, which is the second part of the Making a Difference program, provides a collection of practical tools from economics, technology, climate science, the life sciences, and more to help you achieve a positive impact on the world. From the small decisions we make every day, through the initiatives we choose to support, to our most significant life choices, such as what career to pursue, relying on reliable sources and well-established tools in decision-making can help you drive a change you believe in.

We will learn some of the most important frameworks and tools to prioritize impactful opportunities – even in the most challenging circumstances, such as preparing for unprecedented risks or comparing completely different cause areas. Each lesson will also introduce you to a new cause area with plenty of concrete and actionable opportunities for making a difference, including some of humanity’s largest modern risks.

This course is a follow-up to Making a Difference Ⅰ: Evidence-based Impact, where we learned some foundational tools and ideas for assessing and driving impact and explored opportunities backed by strong evidence.

In this course, we pivot away from the evidence-rich environments of the previous course and explore what we can do about risks so great that we can’t wait until we have all the evidence.

What's inside

Learning objectives

  • Strategies for executing ambitious high-impact plans.
  • Frameworks for prioritizing different options for making a difference.
  • Techniques for critical thinking, decision-making, and research.
  • Strategies for directing your career to successfully help others at scale.
  • Concrete opportunities in promising cause areas you can contribute to.
  • Insights from economics, statistics, the natural sciences, technology, and more.

Traffic lights

Read about what's good
what should give you pause
and possible dealbreakers
Guides learners in critical thinking, decision-making, and research, which are valuable skills for operating in complex and ambiguous environments
Covers both well-established and emerging risks, making it relevant to those concerned about the future of humanity
Instructed by Sella Nevo and Dan Lahav, who bring expertise in economics, climate science, and technology
Offers frameworks for prioritizing impactful opportunities, catering to learners seeking guidance in making meaningful choices
Introduces learners to various cause areas, exposing them to diverse opportunities for making a positive impact
Requires a strong foundation in either economics, technology, climate science, or the life sciences, which may limit accessibility for some learners

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Reviews summary

High-impact strategies for global challenges

According to learners, this course offers an invaluable framework for understanding and addressing global catastrophic risks, particularly for those interested in effective altruism. Students highlight the thought-provoking content that pushes them to consider large-scale, high-stakes issues like climate change, nuclear war, and AI safety. Many find the lectures engaging and the practical tools from economics and science highly applicable. Some feedback indicates that while the course is comprehensive, some topics, particularly within the more technical areas, could benefit from deeper dives or additional resources for those without prior background.
Some topics may require prior knowledge for full comprehension.
"While generally accessible, some of the more technical sections could use additional explanations if you don't have a strong background in statistics or economics."
"I felt that a deeper dive into certain scientific or economic concepts would have been helpful for those of us without prior exposure."
"As someone without a strong science background, I sometimes needed to do external research to fully grasp some of the detailed information."
Lectures are well-delivered and maintain learner interest.
"The lectures are engaging and well-structured, making complex topics easy to follow."
"I found the instructors to be very knowledgeable and passionate, which kept me motivated throughout."
"The way the material was presented made it easy to absorb even the most challenging concepts."
Offers concrete strategies for real-world impact.
"I gained concrete, actionable opportunities for making a difference, which I can apply in my career."
"The practical tools from economics and science are directly applicable to decision-making in complex situations."
"I learned strategies for directing my career to successfully help others at scale, which is a game-changer."
Challenges perspectives on major global threats and solutions.
"The course content is truly thought-provoking, pushing me to consider new angles on climate change and AI."
"I appreciated how it delved into crucial topics like nuclear war and pandemics, making me feel more informed and empowered."
"The discussions around existential risks were incredibly insightful and broadened my understanding of global challenges."
Provides essential tools for tackling humanity's most pressing issues.
"This course offers a very helpful framework for thinking about and prioritizing global catastrophic risks."
"I found the principles from economics and decision-making incredibly useful for evaluating where to direct my efforts for maximum impact."
"It really helps you think strategically about making a difference in high-stakes environments, which is exactly what I was looking for."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Making a Difference Ⅱ: High Stakes with these activities:
Review basic calculus
Reviewing foundational calculus concepts can help you a better understand the building blocks of models used in climate science and economics.
Browse courses on Derivative
Show steps
  • Review notes from previous calculus courses
  • Use online resources to practice solving calculus problems
  • Take practice quizzes to assess your understanding
Review statistics and probability concepts
Statistics and probability play a crucial role in climate modeling and data analysis, so refreshing these concepts will enhance your understanding of the course material.
Browse courses on Statistics
Show steps
  • Review notes or textbooks on basic statistics and probability
  • Use online resources or practice problems to test your understanding
Read "The Uninhabitable Earth" by David Wallace-Wells
This book offers a comprehensive overview of the potential consequences of climate change, effectively supplementing the course materials and broadening your understanding.
Show steps
  • Read one chapter per week
  • Take notes on key concepts and arguments
  • Discuss the book with classmates or friends
Four other activities
Expand to see all activities and additional details
Show all seven activities
Explore the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) website
The IPCC is a leading international body for the assessment of climate change, and their website provides valuable resources and reports on the latest scientific findings.
Show steps
  • Visit the IPCC website and browse their reports
  • Follow the IPCC on social media for updates and event announcements
Attend a conference or webinar on climate change
Conferences and webinars provide opportunities to connect with experts, learn about the latest research, and expand your network in the field of climate change.
Show steps
  • Research upcoming conferences or webinars
  • Register for the event and attend the sessions
  • Network with other attendees and exchange ideas
Write a blog post on a specific climate change issue
Writing a blog post allows you to synthesize your understanding of a particular climate change issue and share your insights with others.
Show steps
  • Choose a specific climate change topic
  • Research the topic thoroughly
  • Write a draft of your blog post
  • Edit and proofread your post
  • Publish your post on a relevant platform
Volunteer with a local environmental organization
Volunteering provides hands-on experience, allows you to apply your knowledge, and connects you with like-minded individuals passionate about environmental issues.
Show steps
  • Research local environmental organizations
  • Contact the organizations and inquire about volunteer opportunities
  • Attend volunteer events and participate in activities

Career center

Learners who complete Making a Difference Ⅱ: High Stakes will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Reading list

We've selected 50 books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Making a Difference Ⅱ: High Stakes.
Decisive provides a four-step process (WRAP) for making better decisions: Widen your options, Reality-test your assumptions, Attain distance before deciding, and Prepare to be wrong. offers practical strategies and is highly applicable for students and professionals seeking to improve their decision-making skills in various contexts. It's a practical guide that complements the theoretical understanding of decision making.
Written by a leading AI researcher, this book addresses the critical challenge of ensuring that AI systems are designed to be beneficial and aligned with human values. It explains the potential risks of advanced AI and proposes a new foundation for AI development. is highly relevant to contemporary discussions on AI safety and ethics and is accessible to a broad audience.
Ariely explores the many ways in which our decisions are not rational, revealing the systematic and predictable errors we make. is highly relevant to understanding the biases discussed in several of the online courses. It serves as valuable additional reading to complement theoretical knowledge with real-world examples of irrationality.
Explores the potential impacts of AI on the future of humanity, covering a wide range of societal, philosophical, and ethical implications. It is written for a general audience and provides a broad overview of the opportunities and challenges presented by advanced AI. It's a must-read for anyone interested in the broader context and future directions of AI, offering valuable perspective beyond the technical aspects.
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This recent book delves into the concept of noise – the unwanted variability in judgments that should ideally be identical. It builds upon Kahneman's previous work and is highly relevant to contemporary discussions on improving decision making in professional settings, such as medicine, law, and forecasting. It provides a deeper understanding of errors in judgment beyond just biases.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the psychological processes that influence managerial judgment and decision making. It is often used as a textbook in business schools and is highly relevant for understanding how cognitive biases affect decisions in organizational settings. It's a valuable resource for both students and professionals.
Equips readers with the tools to identify and challenge misinformation, particularly in the context of data and statistics. It's a timely and practical guide for developing critical thinking skills relevant to the digital age and navigating misleading information. Highly recommended for all audiences.
Co-authored by a co-founder of DeepMind, this recent book explores the transformative impact of AI and other frontier technologies on society and the challenges of controlling them. It discusses the concept of the “containment problem” and the potential implications for the future. provides a contemporary perspective on the challenges and opportunities presented by advanced AI.
Offers a critical examination of the broader societal and environmental impacts of AI. It reveals the hidden costs and power structures behind AI technologies, going beyond the technical aspects to explore its political and environmental dimensions. This is an important read for gaining a comprehensive understanding of AI's real-world consequences and is relevant to discussions on ethical and responsible AI.
Drawing on her background as a professional poker player, Duke provides a framework for making better decisions in situations involving uncertainty and incomplete information. is particularly useful for understanding probabilistic thinking and managing risk, relevant to courses on decision making under uncertainty and financial analysis. It offers practical strategies for real-world decision making.
This comprehensive book provides an overview of climate science from various perspectives, making it suitable for those looking for an in-depth exploration of the subject. It can serve as a core textbook for undergraduate and potentially introductory graduate-level courses, solidifying understanding of the scientific principles.
Schwartz argues that an overload of choices can lead to increased anxiety, indecision, and dissatisfaction. is highly relevant to understanding the psychological impact of decision making in modern society, a theme that resonates with courses on consumer psychology and behavioral economics. It provides a deeper understanding of the challenges individuals face when making choices.
Provides an interdisciplinary overview of social impact assessment, examining the theoretical underpinnings, methods, and practical applications of the field.
Considered a classic practical guide, this book outlines a structured approach to decision making focusing on identifying objectives, creating alternatives, and understanding consequences and tradeoffs. It's a valuable reference tool for anyone who needs a systematic method for tackling complex decisions. The methods presented are time-tested and widely applicable.
Is highly relevant for understanding contemporary challenges in Climate Science, particularly the organized efforts to obstruct action. It delves into the tactics used to delay necessary systemic changes and shifts the focus from individual blame to the role of the fossil fuel industry. This is valuable for advanced undergraduates and graduate students interested in the intersection of science, politics, and communication.
A follow-up to 'Thinking in Bets,' this book offers practical tools and frameworks for making better decisions in everyday life. It focuses on developing a robust process for decision making, even when faced with uncertainty. is well-suited for a broad audience looking for actionable strategies.
Carl Sagan's बुक powerful defense of science and reason against pseudoscience and irrationality. It introduces the 'Baloney Detection Kit,' a set of tools for skeptical thinking and evaluating claims. This is an inspiring read for all audiences, particularly relevant for navigating misinformation in the contemporary world.
Provides a comprehensive overview of what is required to achieve 'real zero' carbon dioxide emissions and negative emissions thereafter. It examines issues around energy and material use, greenhouse gas removal technologies, and policy action. Highly relevant for understanding solutions and policy, suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals.
Julia Galef introduces the concepts of 'soldier mindset' (defending your beliefs) and 'scout mindset' (seeing the world as it is). This framework is excellent for understanding the psychological barriers to objective critical thinking and offers strategies for adopting a more open and accurate perspective. Highly relevant for all levels.
Offers a rigorous and detailed treatment of the physics of climate, suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate students with a strong science background. It delves into the underlying principles of radiative transfer, thermodynamics, and fluid dynamics relevant to climate science. This book helps solidify a deeper, more technical understanding.
Examines the traits and techniques of 'superforecasters' – individuals who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. It provides insights into probabilistic thinking, updating beliefs based on new information, and working in teams to improve forecasts, all of which are relevant to data-driven decision making and strategic planning.
Dalio shares the principles he developed and used to achieve success in life and at Bridgewater Associates. The book outlines a systematic approach to decision making based on clearly articulated principles and radical transparency. It provides insights into strategic decision making in a professional context.
Provides a stark look at the potential future impacts of climate change, covering topics like food shortages, climate wars, and economic devastation. It's highly relevant for understanding the urgency and potential scale of the crisis, suitable for a wide audience and particularly impactful for prompting deeper engagement with the topic. This book is more valuable as additional reading to emphasize the stakes involved.
Authored by prominent figures in the critical thinking movement, this book provides a framework and tools for applying critical thinking concepts to various aspects of life. It's a practical guide for developing critical thinking as a habit and is suitable for a wide audience, including professionals.
This academic text provides a thorough exploration of the theoretical and empirical research on thinking and decision making. It covers various models of decision making and biases, making it a valuable resource for graduate students and researchers seeking a deep understanding of the subject. It's more suitable as a core textbook for advanced study.
This classic and highly-regarded book on reinforcement learning, a key area in AI focused on how agents learn to make decisions. It covers fundamental concepts and algorithms in a clear and accessible manner. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and primary reference for researchers in the field. is essential for understanding learning algorithms in AI.
Applies game theory principles to a wide range of strategic interactions, providing a framework for thinking strategically and making decisions when the outcome depends on the choices of others. It's highly relevant for understanding strategic decision making in business and other competitive environments.
This recent book offers practical strategies for improving decision-making and avoiding common mental traps. It translates complex ideas into accessible advice, making it valuable for a broad audience, including professionals seeking to enhance their practical critical thinking skills in daily life and work.
Taleb discusses the impact of rare and unpredictable events (black swans) and our tendency to rationalize them in hindsight. is relevant for understanding the limitations of traditional forecasting and decision-making models in the face of extreme uncertainty. It offers a critical perspective on how we think about and prepare for the unexpected.
Provides a broad and accessible introduction to the science behind global warming, including the roles of the atmosphere and ocean, radiation balance, and past climate changes. It also looks at future projections and energy solutions, making it a comprehensive resource for undergraduates and master's students.
Shifts the focus to solutions, presenting a collection of the most promising approaches to reversing global warming. It's highly relevant for those interested in climate action and provides concrete examples of how different sectors can contribute. Useful for all levels, particularly those interested in climate solutions and policy.
Klein explores decision making in naturalistic settings, focusing on how experienced professionals make high-stakes decisions under pressure and with limited information. is valuable for gaining a broader understanding of decision processes beyond purely rational models and is particularly relevant for those interested in leadership and applied decision making.
Offers an in-depth exploration of climate science, including climate modeling, historical data, and future predictions. It's suitable for intermediate-level readers, including undergraduates, who want to deepen their understanding of the science and its implications.
This textbook offers a thorough introduction to the global climatic system, progressing from basics to more advanced topics like the global hydrologic cycle and atmospheric circulation. It includes a look at climate change and sustainability, suitable for upper-level undergraduate or introductory graduate courses.
While not solely focused on personal decision making, Cialdini's book explores the principles of persuasion and how they influence our decisions and compliance. Understanding these principles is valuable for recognizing external factors that can impact decision processes, relevant to courses on consumer psychology and negotiation. It provides insight into how others can influence our choices.
Focuses on the engineering aspects of building AI applications, particularly with the use of foundation models. It provides practical guidance for professionals and engineers on developing and deploying AI systems. It is highly relevant to contemporary AI practices and offers valuable insights into the practical challenges of bringing AI to life.
Focuses on the role of impact assessment in promoting sustainable development, exploring how impact assessment can inform decision-making and contribute to achieving environmental, social, and economic goals.
Explores the ways people are attempting to solve environmental problems, often with unintended consequences. It provides a look into contemporary topics like geoengineering and adaptation strategies, making it relevant for those interested in the practical and ethical dimensions of climate solutions. It's accessible to a broad audience, including high school students and undergraduates.
Argues that the climate crisis wake-up call to fundamentally change our economic system. It's highly relevant for understanding the systemic drivers of climate change and the political and economic challenges of addressing it. Suitable for undergraduates and graduate students interested in the political economy of climate change.
This textbook provides a comprehensive analysis of climate and human interaction with it, featuring the latest IPCC assessments. It's designed to help students become scientifically literate participants in climate discussions and is suitable for undergraduate courses.
Attempts to bring together key topics and solutions to end the climate crisis. It is noted for its focus on actionable solutions and is an ideal starting point for gaining a high-level overview of the topic. Suitable for a broad audience, including high school students and undergraduates.
Offers a visually engaging collection of 50 models and frameworks for better decision making and strategic thinking. It's a practical and accessible resource that can be used as a quick reference tool for approaching different types of decisions. It provides breadth in terms of the variety of decision-making approaches.
This guide focuses specifically on strategic decision making within a business context, offering practical steps and frameworks for developing effective business plans. It useful resource for professionals and students interested in the application of decision-making principles to business strategy. It serves as a practical guide for a specific domain of decision making.

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