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Gabriel M. Leung, Joseph Wu, Guan Yi, Malik Peiris, Marc Lipsitch, Tommy Lam, Kwok-Yung Yuen, Mark Jit, Maria Huachen Zhu, Benjamin Cowling, and Thomas Abraham

With supplementary module on COVID-19Including our study results, final size estimation for superspreading clusters, the Chinese experience for global preparedness, and more.

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With supplementary module on COVID-19Including our study results, final size estimation for superspreading clusters, the Chinese experience for global preparedness, and more.

“If history is our guide, we can assume that the battle between the intellect and will of the human species and the extraordinary adaptability of microbes will be never-ending.” (1)

Despite all the remarkable technological breakthroughs that we have made over the past few decades, the threat from infectious diseases has significantly accelerated. In this course, we will learn why this is the case by looking at the fundamental scientific principles underlying epidemics and the public health actions behind their prevention and control in the 21st century.

This is the second (spread of infectious diseases) of the four courses, covers these topics:

  • Basic Concepts in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
  • Epidemiologic Triangle: The Pathogen, The Host and The Environment
  • Evidence Synthesis
  • Infectious Disease Modelling

如果历史是我们的向导,我们可以认为人类的智慧和意志与微生物种惊人的适应性之间的斗争将永远持续下去。”(1)

尽管过去的几十年间我们在科技领域取得了令人瞩目的突破,可是传染病对人类的威胁却显著增加。本课程将通过学习流行病学的基础科学原理以及预防与控制流行病的公共卫生措施,对上述现象予以阐释。

这是四個课程中的第二个(傳染病的傳播):

  • 传染病学的基本概念
  • 流行病学三角模型: 病原体,宿主和环境
  • 证据综合
  • 传染病模型

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(1) Fauci AS, Touchette NA, Folkers GK. Emerging Infectious Diseases: a 10-Year Perspective from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Emerg Infect Dis 2005 Apr; 11(4):519-25.

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What's inside

Learning objectives

  • Epidemic curve
  • Timescale of disease transmission
  • The pathogen: evolution (case1: myxoma virus)
  • The pathogen: evolution (case 2: human immunodeficiency virus)
  • The pathogen: evolution (case 3: antimicrobial resistance)
  • The host: how age affects disease transmission and severity
  • The host: sexual mixing
  • The environment
  • Uncertainty in modeling (dynamic uncertainty, parametric uncertainty)
  • Uncertainty in modeling (structural uncertainty, scenario uncertainty)
  • 流行病学曲线图
  • 疾病传播的时幅
  • 病原体:进化(病例1:粘液瘤病毒)
  • 病原体:进化(病例2:人类免疫缺陷病毒)
  • 病原体:进化(病例3:抗菌素耐药性)
  • 宿主:年龄如何影响疾病的传播和严重性
  • 宿主:性混合
  • 环境
  • 建模的不确定性(动态不确定性,参数不确定性)
  • 建模的不确定性(结构不确定性,情境不确定性)

Syllabus

Week 1: Spread (Infectious Disease Epidemiology)
Basic Concepts in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Epidemic Curve
What is Incubation Period and Use of Incubation Period
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Transmissibility of Communicable Diseases
Timescale of Disease Transmission
What is Severity of Infectious Disease
Difficulties Associated with Severity Estimation
Week 2: Spread (Epidemiological Triangle)
Epidemiologic Triangle
The Pathogen: The Effects of Dose and Pathogen Genetics
The Pathogen: Evolution (Case1: Myxoma Virus)
The Pathogen: Evolution (Case 2: Human Immunodeficiency Virus)
The Pathogen: Evolution (Case 3: Antimicrobial Resistance)
The Host: Overview
The Host: How Age Affects Disease Transmission and Severity
The Host: Sexual Mixing
The Environment
Supplementary Module: Influenza Immunity and Transmission In Time, Age and Space
Week 3: Spread (Infectious Disease Modeling)
Infectious Disease Modelling (Susceptible Infectious Removed Model)
Evidence Synthesis
Uncertainty in Modeling (Dynamic Uncertainty, Parametric Uncertainty)
Uncertainty in Modeling (Structural Uncertainty, Scenario Uncertainty)
Supplementary Module: Precision Public Health

Good to know

Know what's good
, what to watch for
, and possible dealbreakers
Provides a comprehensive examination of infectious diseases and their epidemiology
Taught by experts in infectious disease epidemiology, such as Benjamin Cowling and Joseph Wu
Suitable for undergraduates and professionals in public health and infectious disease control
Covers up-to-date research on the evolution of pathogens and the role of the host and environment in disease transmission
Provides a strong foundation in infectious disease epidemiology and modeling
Course materials are not explicitly stated to be up-to-date

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Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Epidemics II with these activities:
Organize and Review Course Materials
Organizing and reviewing your course materials regularly can help you stay on top of the material and identify areas where you need additional support.
Show steps
  • Create a system for organizing your notes, assignments, and other course materials.
  • Review your materials regularly to make sure that you understand the concepts and can apply them to real-world situations.
Review Basic Concepts in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
This activity can help solidify your understanding of the basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology, which will provide a strong foundation for the rest of the course.
Browse courses on Epidemiology
Show steps
  • Read the assigned textbook chapters on basic concepts in infectious disease epidemiology.
  • Take notes on the key concepts, such as the definition of epidemiology, the different types of epidemiological studies, and the measures of disease frequency.
  • Complete the practice questions at the end of each chapter.
Create a Mind Map of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Concepts
Creating a mind map can help you visualize the relationships between the different concepts in infectious disease epidemiology, which can improve your understanding of the subject.
Show steps
  • Start by writing down the main concept in the center of a piece of paper.
  • Draw branches off of the main concept and write down related concepts.
  • Continue adding branches and concepts until you have a comprehensive mind map of the subject.
Five other activities
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Show all eight activities
Discuss Course Concepts with Peers
Discussing course concepts with peers can help you understand the material more deeply and identify areas where you need additional support.
Show steps
  • Form a study group with other students in the course.
  • Meet regularly to discuss the course material, work on assignments together, and quiz each other on key concepts.
Learn About the Pathogen: Evolution and Its Impact on Disease Transmission
By following tutorials on the evolution of pathogens and its impact on disease transmission, you can gain a deeper understanding of how pathogens change over time and how these changes affect the way diseases spread.
Show steps
  • View online tutorials on the evolution of pathogens and its impact on disease transmission.
  • Take notes on the key concepts, such as the different types of mutations that can occur in pathogens, the factors that drive pathogen evolution, and the consequences of pathogen evolution for disease transmission.
  • Complete the practice exercises that are included in the tutorials.
Learn About the Host: How Age Affects Disease Transmission and Severity
By following tutorials on how age affects disease transmission and severity, you can gain a deeper understanding of the role that the host plays in the spread of infectious diseases.
Show steps
  • View online tutorials on how age affects disease transmission and severity.
  • Take notes on the key concepts, such as the different ways that age can affect the immune system, the types of diseases that are more common in different age groups, and the measures that can be taken to protect vulnerable populations.
  • Complete the practice exercises that are included in the tutorials.
Practice Solving Infectious Disease Modelling Problems
Practicing solving infectious disease modelling problems can help you develop the skills you need to apply these models to real-world situations.
Show steps
  • Find practice problems online or in textbooks.
  • Solve the problems using the techniques you have learned in class.
  • Check your answers against the provided solutions.
Read 'Principles of Epidemiology' by Leon Gordis
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the principles of epidemiology, which will complement the material covered in the course.
View Epidemiology on Amazon
Show steps
  • Read the assigned chapters in the book.
  • Take notes on the key concepts, such as the different types of epidemiological studies, the measures of disease frequency, and the methods used to control infectious diseases.
  • Complete the practice questions at the end of each chapter.

Career center

Learners who complete Epidemics II will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Epidemiologist
Epidemiologists investigate the causes and patterns of disease in human populations. This course can help Epidemiologists develop the skills needed to track and analyze the spread of infectious diseases, identify risk factors, and develop strategies to prevent and control outbreaks. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Epidemiologists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Public Health Scientist
Public Health Scientists conduct research to improve the health of populations. This course can help Public Health Scientists develop the skills needed to design and conduct studies to investigate the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate public health interventions. The course's focus on evidence synthesis and uncertainty in modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Public Health Scientists must be able to critically evaluate research findings and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Virologist
Virologists study the biology of viruses and their role in human disease. This course can help Virologists develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of viral infections, and to develop and evaluate diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Virologists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Medical Microbiologist
Medical Microbiologists study the biology of microorganisms and their role in human disease. This course can help Medical Microbiologists develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of infectious diseases, and to develop and evaluate diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Medical Microbiologists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Research Scientist
Research Scientists conduct research to improve our understanding of the world around us. This course can help Research Scientists develop the skills needed to design and conduct studies to investigate the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate new treatments and interventions. The course's focus on evidence synthesis and uncertainty in modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Research Scientists must be able to critically evaluate research findings and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Disease Ecologist
Disease Ecologists study the interactions between diseases, hosts, and the environment. This course can help Disease Ecologists develop the skills needed to understand the factors that drive the spread of infectious diseases and to develop strategies to prevent and control outbreaks. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Disease Ecologists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Infection Control Nurse
Infection Control Nurses develop and implement strategies to prevent and control the spread of infections in healthcare settings. This course can help Infection Control Nurses develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate infection control measures. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Infection Control Nurses must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Physician
Physicians diagnose and treat diseases in patients. This course can help Physicians develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of infectious diseases, and to develop and evaluate treatment plans. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Physicians must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Data Scientist
Data Scientists use statistical and mathematical techniques to analyze large amounts of data in order to uncover trends, make predictions, and help businesses make informed decisions. This course can help Data Scientists develop the skills needed to model the spread of infectious diseases, identify risk factors, and develop strategies to prevent and control outbreaks. The course's focus on evidence synthesis and uncertainty in modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Data Scientists must be able to critically evaluate data and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Veterinarian
Veterinarians diagnose and treat diseases in animals. This course can help Veterinarians develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of infectious diseases in animals, and to develop and evaluate treatment plans. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Veterinarians must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Pharmacologist
Pharmacologists study the effects of drugs on the human body. This course can help Pharmacologists develop the skills needed to understand the mechanisms of action of antimicrobial drugs, and to develop and evaluate new drugs to treat infectious diseases. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Pharmacologists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and drugs.
Laboratory Scientist
Laboratory Scientists perform laboratory tests to diagnose and monitor diseases. This course can help Laboratory Scientists develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate laboratory tests. The course's focus on the epidemiologic triangle and infectious disease modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Laboratory Scientists must be able to understand the complex interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment.
Health Policy Analyst
Health Policy Analysts develop and evaluate policies to improve the health of populations. This course can help Health Policy Analysts develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate public health interventions. The course's focus on evidence synthesis and uncertainty in modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Health Policy Analysts must be able to critically evaluate research findings and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Healthcare Administrator
Healthcare Administrators plan, direct, and coordinate the delivery of health care services. This course can help Healthcare Administrators develop the skills needed to understand the causes and patterns of disease, and to develop and evaluate public health interventions. The course's focus on evidence synthesis and uncertainty in modeling is particularly relevant to this role, as Healthcare Administrators must be able to critically evaluate research findings and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Zoologist
Zoologists study the biology of animals. This course may be useful for Zoologists who are interested in understanding the causes and patterns of infectious diseases in animals, and in developing and evaluating strategies to prevent and control outbreaks.

Reading list

We've selected six books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Epidemics II.
Provides a comprehensive overview of infectious diseases, their pathogenesis, prevention, and control.
A comprehensive textbook on statistical methods used in epidemiology, covering topics from descriptive statistics to advanced statistical modeling.
A textbook on mathematical models in biology and medicine. Provides a good introduction to the basic concepts of mathematical modeling and its applications in epidemiology.
A popular book on the history of infectious diseases. Provides a good overview of the field and is suitable for both students and general readers.
A concise and accessible introduction to the basic principles of epidemiology. Provides a good overview of the field and is suitable for beginners.

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