Epidemics II

This course is a part of Epidemics-Origins, Spread, Control and Communication, a 4-course Professional Certificate series from edX.

With supplementary module on COVID-19

Including our study results, final size estimation for superspreading clusters, the Chinese experience for global preparedness, and more.

“If history is our guide, we can assume that the battle between the intellect and will of the human species and the extraordinary adaptability of microbes will be never-ending.” (1)

Despite all the remarkable technological breakthroughs that we have made over the past few decades, the threat from infectious diseases has significantly accelerated. In this course, we will learn why this is the case by looking at the fundamental scientific principles underlying epidemics and the public health actions behind their prevention and control in the 21st century.

This is the second (spread of infectious diseases) of the four courses, covers these topics:

Basic Concepts in Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Epidemiologic Triangle: The Pathogen, The Host and The Environment

Evidence Synthesis

Infectious Disease Modelling

如果历史是我们的向导，我们可以认为人类的智慧和意志与微生物种惊人的适应性之间的斗争将永远持续下去。”(1)

尽管过去的几十年间我们在科技领域取得了令人瞩目的突破，可是传染病对人类的威胁却显著增加。本课程将通过学习流行病学的基础科学原理以及预防与控制流行病的公共卫生措施，对上述现象予以阐释。

这是四個课程中的第二个（傳染病的傳播）：

传染病学的基本概念

流行病学三角模型: 病原体，宿主和环境

证据综合

传染病模型

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(1) Fauci AS, Touchette NA, Folkers GK. Emerging Infectious Diseases: a 10-Year Perspective from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Emerg Infect Dis 2005 Apr; 11(4):519-25.

What you'll learn

• Epidemic Curve
• Timescale of Disease Transmission
• The Pathogen: Evolution (Case1: Myxoma Virus)
• The Pathogen: Evolution (Case 2: Human Immunodeficiency Virus)
• The Pathogen: Evolution (Case 3: Antimicrobial Resistance)
• The Host: How Age Affects Disease Transmission and Severity
• The Host: Sexual Mixing
• The Environment
• Uncertainty in Modeling (Dynamic Uncertainty, Parametric Uncertainty)
• Uncertainty in Modeling (Structural Uncertainty, Scenario Uncertainty)
• 流行病学曲线图
• 疾病传播的时幅
• 病原体：进化（病例1：粘液瘤病毒）
• 病原体：进化（病例2：人类免疫缺陷病毒）
• 病原体：进化（病例3：抗菌素耐药性）
• 宿主：年龄如何影响疾病的传播和严重性
• 宿主：性混合
• 环境
• 建模的不确定性（动态不确定性，参数不确定性）
• 建模的不确定性（结构不确定性，情境不确定性）