Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel from Coursera

What's inside

Syllabus

Welcome and Critical Information

In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,

Business Indicators

In this topic, we will explore the role that Business Indicators can play in creating business forecasts, in particular to make judgments on the cyclical component, via predicting turns in the business cycle. We will then look at how Excel can help us execute these insights into business forecasts.

Subjective Assessment Methods

In this topic, we will be exploring 3 different Subjective Assessment Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.

Exploratory Methods

In this topic, we will be exploring 2 different Exploratory Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.

Biases & Bringing All of Business Forecasting Together

In this topic, we will reflect on the biases that can occur when conducting business forecasts. Then, we will be bringing all the topics together in a case study based assessment, where you will need to apply the principles of judgment to decide the forecasting method used, and utilise judgmental forecasting.

Good to know

Know what's good

, what to watch for

, and possible dealbreakers

Prerequisites are not required

Builds a strong foundation for beginners

Teaches structured methodologies for judgmental forecasting

Reviews summary

Expert forecasting with excel

Learners say that Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel is an engaging, expert course that balances theory and practice well. The case studies and hands-on practice are helpful in reinforcing the concepts taught in each week. However, Mac users may find the course difficult to use.

Excellent content and knowledgeable instructor.

"I recently completed the "Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel" course and I was thoroughly impressed."

"The instructor was knowledgeable and engaging, making the material easy to understand and enjoyable to learn."

Balances theory and practice well.

"The course provided a great balance of theory and practical application."

"I very much appreciated the perfect balance between theory and hands-on work to apply the concepts learned."

Incorrect information about 20% of the time.

"This course is not only useless but incorrect about 20% of the time."

"the topics cocered in this course in the series are out of date and the piees related to cyclical/judgemental are out of date, poorly explained and many of the statements are wrong including the quizzes."

Difficult to use for Mac users.

"Not very user friendly for Mac users."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel with these activities:

Create a Judgmental Forecasting Toolkit

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Organize your materials to enhance your learning by assembling relevant resources and tools for judgmental forecasting.

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Gather materials from the course modules, such as lecture notes, readings, and practice exercises.
Include external resources such as articles, books, and websites on judgmental forecasting.
Organize the materials into logical sections or categories.

Review foundational mathematics

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Reviewing basic mathematical concepts will prepare you for the statistical and analytical methods used in the course.

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Review algebra fundamentals, including solving equations, inequalities, and systems of equations.
Brush up on calculus, including differentiation and integration.
Revisit basic statistics, including probability, distributions, and hypothesis testing.

Review of Previous Business Forecasting Course Material

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Refresh your understanding of time series models and regression models, which are foundational concepts for judgmental forecasting.

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Review your notes, assignments, and quizzes from the previous Time Series Models and Regression Models courses.
Take practice questions to test your understanding of the material.

Six other activities

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Connect with a Judgmental Forecasting Expert

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Seek guidance and support from an experienced professional who can provide insights and advice on judgmental forecasting.

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Identify a professional who specializes in judgmental forecasting.
Reach out to the professional and request a meeting.
Prepare questions and topics for discussion.
Meet with the professional and engage in a conversation about judgmental forecasting.

Practice Subjective Assessment Methods

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Reinforce your understanding of subjective assessment methods, such as the Sales Force Composite Method, Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments.

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Identify a real-world forecasting scenario.
Apply the Sales Force Composite Method, Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments to the scenario.
Compare and contrast the results.

Attend a Forecasting Workshop

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Expand your knowledge and network by attending a forecasting workshop where you can interact with experts and practitioners.

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Research and identify a reputable forecasting workshop.
Register and pay for the workshop.
Attend the workshop and actively participate in discussions.
Network with other attendees.
Follow up with any contacts you made at the workshop.

Data Visualization for Judgmental Forecasts

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Strengthen your data visualization skills by creating a collection of graphs, charts, and other visualizations to support your judgmental forecasts.

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Identify the key metrics you want to track using judgmental forecasting.
Choose appropriate data visualization techniques for each metric.
Create clear and concise visualizations using Excel or other tools.

Case Study Analysis: Judgmental Forecasting in Practice

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Develop your ability to apply judgmental forecasting methods and address biases in a real-world scenario.

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Select a case study that involves judgmental forecasting.
Identify the appropriate judgmental forecasting method(s).
Apply the method(s) to the case study.
Analyze the results and identify potential biases.
Create a report or presentation summarizing your findings.

Contribute to a Judgmental Forecasting Project

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Contribute to the broader forecasting community by participating in an open-source project focused on judgmental forecasting.

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Identify an open-source judgmental forecasting project that interests you.
Review the project documentation and identify ways you can contribute.
Join the project community and connect with other contributors.
Make meaningful code contributions, bug fixes, or documentation improvements.

Career center

Learners who complete Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:

Business Analyst

A Business Analyst is responsible for analyzing an organization's business processes and IT systems to identify areas for improvement. They may also be involved in developing and implementing new systems and processes. This course can help Business Analysts to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make effective business decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

See salaries and explore the career path for Business Analyst

Strategy Consultant

A Strategy Consultant is responsible for developing and implementing strategic plans. They may also be involved in advising clients on business decisions. This course can help Strategy Consultants to develop the skills they need to understand the needs of clients and to develop and implement strategic plans that meet those needs. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients and stakeholders.

See salaries and explore the career path for Strategy Consultant

Operations Research Analyst

An Operations Research Analyst is responsible for developing and implementing mathematical models to improve the efficiency of business operations. They may also be involved in analyzing data to identify areas for improvement. This course can help Operations Research Analysts to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make effective business decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

See salaries and explore the career path for Operations Research Analyst

Financial Analyst

A Financial Analyst is responsible for analyzing financial data and making recommendations on investments. They may also be involved in developing and implementing financial models. This course can help Financial Analysts to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze financial data to make sound investment decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients.

See salaries and explore the career path for Financial Analyst

Sales Manager

A Sales Manager is responsible for developing and executing sales strategies. They may also be involved in managing sales teams and resources. This course can help Sales Managers to develop the skills they need to understand the needs of customers and to develop and execute sales strategies that meet those needs. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients and sales teams.

See salaries and explore the career path for Sales Manager

Statistician

A Statistician is responsible for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data to make effective business decisions. They may also be involved in developing and implementing statistical models. This course can help Statisticians to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make sound business decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

See salaries and explore the career path for Statistician

Data Analyst

A Data Analyst is responsible for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data to make effective business decisions. They may also be involved in developing and implementing data analysis models. This course can help Data Analysts to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make sound business decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

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Project Manager

A Project Manager is responsible for planning, executing, and closing projects. They may also be involved in managing teams and resources. This course can help Project Managers to develop the skills they need to plan and execute projects effectively. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

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Product Manager

A Product Manager is responsible for developing and managing a product. They may also be involved in marketing and sales. This course can help Product Managers to develop the skills they need to understand the needs of customers and to develop and market products that meet those needs. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with cross-functional teams.

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Risk Manager

A Risk Manager is responsible for identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks. They may also be involved in developing and implementing risk management strategies. This course can help Risk Managers to develop the skills they need to identify and assess risks to make effective risk management decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

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Market Research Analyst

A Market Research Analyst is responsible for conducting research to identify and understand the needs of customers. They may also be involved in developing and implementing marketing campaigns. This course can help Market Research Analysts to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make effective marketing decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients.

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Data Scientist

A Data Scientist is responsible for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data to make effective business decisions. They may also be involved in developing and implementing data science models. This course can help Data Scientists to develop the skills they need to gather and analyze data to make sound business decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

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Financial Planner

A Financial Planner is responsible for helping clients plan for their financial future. They may also be involved in investing and managing client assets. This course can help Financial Planners to develop the skills they need to analyze financial data and make sound investment decisions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients.

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Economist

An Economist is responsible for studying the economy and making predictions about its future. They may also be involved in developing and implementing economic policies. This course can help Economists to develop the skills they need to analyze economic data to make sound economic predictions. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with stakeholders.

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Insurance Agent

An Insurance Agent is responsible for selling and servicing insurance policies. They may also be involved in providing advice on insurance coverage. This course can help Insurance Agents to develop the skills they need to understand the needs of clients and to recommend and sell insurance policies that meet those needs. It can also help them to develop the communication and interpersonal skills necessary to work effectively with clients.

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