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David Schweidel

Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.

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What's inside

Syllabus

Randomness and Probability
Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information
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Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel
Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.
Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty
In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.
Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans
Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.

Good to know

Know what's good
, what to watch for
, and possible dealbreakers
Explores methods that are core for business problem solving in marketing
Teaches how to conduct Monte Carlo simulations, a useful tool for making marketing decisions under uncertainty
Builds a foundation for developing sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment
Provides learners with foundational knowledge and skills that can be applied to real-world marketing scenarios
Covers essential topics in marketing decision-making under uncertainty, such as randomness, probability, and probability distributions
Taught by David Schweidel, a recognized expert in marketing decision-making under uncertainty

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Reviews summary

Hands-on marketing course with difficult tests

Learners say this hands-on marketing analytics course with engaging assignments is largely positive. However, they warn that the difficult exams require extra effort. Many students emphasize the course provides opportunities to apply acquired learnings and frequent opportunities for practice through quizzes, discussion forums, and assignments. One student mentioned that the subject matter is more complex than previous courses and could use additional support for students struggling with certain exercises.
Involves frequent hands-on practice with lots of assignments.
"This course offers hands-on experience with statistical analysis"
"This course is hands-on!"
"opportunities to apply acquired learnings in practice"
One student mentioned that they desired more support for struggling students.
"The subject is a bit more dense the the previous course, so i believe more support would be necessary."
"Many students open topics on the forum saying that they could not follow one particular exercise and unfortunately nobody received a proper feedback."
Students repeatedly mention the tests require extra effort.
"The instructor instructions were very brief for the assignments and tests."
"The questions in the test were very difficult to understand as to what answer is required."

Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics with these activities:
Form a study group with other students
Form a study group to reinforce your understanding of course concepts.
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  • Identify other students in the course who are interested in forming a study group.
  • Schedule regular meetings to discuss course material and work on assignments together.
  • Take turns leading the study group and facilitating discussions.
Complete online tutorials on Monte Carlo simulations
Supplement your understanding with additional online materials on Monte Carlo simulations.
Browse courses on Monte Carlo simulations
Show steps
  • Search for and identify reputable online tutorials on Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Complete the tutorials at your own pace.
  • Take notes and revisit the tutorials as needed.
Solve practice problems on Monte Carlo simulations
Enhance your problem-solving skills with extra practice on Monte Carlo simulations.
Browse courses on Monte Carlo simulations
Show steps
  • Find practice problems on Monte Carlo simulations from textbooks, online resources, or the course materials.
  • Solve the practice problems on your own.
  • Check your solutions against the provided answer key or consult with an instructor or tutor if needed.
Three other activities
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Show all six activities
Create a presentation or infographic on Monte Carlo simulations
Demonstrate your grasp of the topic and enhance your communication skills.
Browse courses on Monte Carlo simulations
Show steps
  • Decide on the format of your presentation or infographic.
  • Gather relevant information and data on Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Organize and structure your presentation or infographic in a visually appealing way.
  • Present your work to your classmates or share it online.
Develop a marketing campaign plan using Monte Carlo simulations
Apply your knowledge on Monte Carlo simulations by developing a marketing campaign plan.
Browse courses on Monte Carlo simulations
Show steps
  • Define the goals and objectives of your marketing campaign.
  • Identify the target audience for your campaign.
  • Develop a creative strategy for your campaign.
  • Use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the potential outcomes of your campaign.
  • Refine your campaign plan based on the results of your simulations.
Read 'Monte Carlo Simulation and Its Applications' by C. Alexopoulos
Gain a deeper understanding of Monte Carlo simulations through a comprehensive book.
Show steps
  • Purchase or borrow a copy of the book.
  • Read the book thoroughly, taking notes and highlighting important concepts.
  • Complete the exercises and assignments provided in the book.

Career center

Learners who complete Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Data Scientist
Data Scientists analyze and interpret data to help businesses make informed decisions. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Data Scientists build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Data Scientists can enhance their ability to analyze data and make recommendations that are supported by evidence.
Marketing Analyst
Marketing Analysts use data to understand customer behavior and develop marketing strategies. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Marketing Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Marketing Analysts can enhance their ability to analyze data and make recommendations that are supported by evidence.
Quantitative Analyst
Quantitative Analysts use mathematical and statistical models to solve business problems. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Quantitative Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Quantitative Analysts can enhance their ability to develop and implement quantitative models.
Risk Analyst
Risk Analysts identify and assess risks that could affect a business. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Risk Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Risk Analysts can enhance their ability to identify and assess risks, and develop strategies to mitigate those risks.
Financial Analyst
Financial Analysts use data to evaluate investments and make financial recommendations. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Financial Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Financial Analysts can enhance their ability to analyze data and make recommendations that are supported by evidence.
Operations Research Analyst
Operations Research Analysts use mathematical and statistical models to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of business operations. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Operations Research Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Operations Research Analysts can enhance their ability to develop and implement models that improve business operations.
Actuary
Actuaries use mathematical and statistical models to assess and manage financial risk. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Actuaries build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Actuaries can enhance their ability to develop and implement models that assess and manage financial risk.
Statistician
Statisticians collect, analyze, and interpret data. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Statisticians build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Statisticians can enhance their ability to analyze data and make recommendations that are supported by evidence.
Data Analyst
Data Analysts use data to solve business problems. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics can help Data Analysts build a foundation in probability and statistics, which are essential skills for success in this role. The course also covers Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions, which are useful for modeling uncertainty and risk. By taking this course, Data Analysts can enhance their ability to analyze data and make recommendations that are supported by evidence.
Business Analyst
Business Analysts use data to understand business needs and develop solutions. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Business Analysts who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Business Analysts develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions.
Consultant
Consultants use their expertise to help businesses solve problems and improve performance. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Consultants who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Consultants develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions.
Marketing Manager
Marketing Managers develop and execute marketing campaigns. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Marketing Managers who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Marketing Managers develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions about marketing campaigns.
Product Manager
Product Managers develop and manage products. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Product Managers who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Product Managers develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions about product development.
Sales Manager
Sales Managers develop and execute sales strategies. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Sales Managers who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Sales Managers develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions about sales strategies.
Customer Success Manager
Customer Success Managers build and maintain relationships with customers. The course Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics may be useful for Customer Success Managers who want to build a foundation in probability and statistics. This course can help Customer Success Managers develop a better understanding of how to use data to make informed decisions about customer relationships.

Reading list

We've selected 11 books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics.
This classic text provides a rigorous foundation in Bayesian decision analysis, offering advanced insights into uncertainty management.
Offers a detailed treatment of Monte Carlo methods, providing a comprehensive resource for understanding the advanced techniques used in the course.
Provides a comprehensive overview of advanced analytics techniques using Microsoft Excel. It covers topics such as data visualization, data mining, and forecasting. The book is written in a clear and concise style, and it includes numerous examples and case studies.
Presents a rigorous introduction to probability and mathematical statistics, providing a strong foundation for understanding the theoretical underpinnings of the course.
Examines the role of risk and uncertainty in marketing decision-making, offering insights into managing uncertainty in various marketing contexts.
Introduces regression and multilevel models, providing a broader understanding of statistical modeling techniques for managing uncertainty in marketing.
Emphasizes the practical application of statistics, providing valuable insights into interpreting and communicating statistical results in marketing contexts.
Offers a comprehensive overview of econometrics, providing essential background knowledge for understanding advanced statistical techniques used in marketing analytics.
Focuses on the application of statistical methods in financial engineering, providing additional context for understanding uncertainty management in marketing.
Provides a broad overview of mathematical statistics and data analysis, offering essential concepts and techniques for understanding uncertainty.

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