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Leonardo Martínez

Ce cours présente les fondements des dynamiques de la dette publique (c’est-à-dire, la façon dont elle évolue au fil du temps). Il explique la mise en application de ces concepts dans l’Outil, facile à utiliser, sur les dynamiques de la dette publique (Public Debt Dynamics Tool – DDT), qui fonctionne sur Excel. Le DDT propose des projections de la dette publique dans des scénarios de référence et alternatifs, notamment grâce à des graphiques en éventail qui représentent le degré d’incertitude quant à son évolution. Le DDT identifie également les principaux flux générateurs d’endettement publique et prend en compte les trajectoires d’ajustement budgétaire qui seraient nécessaires à l’atteinte d’un objectif défini par l’utilisateur, après une période d’ajustement, elle aussi définie par l’utilisateur.

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What's inside

Learning objectives

  • À la fin de ce cours, les participants devraient être en mesure :
  • De reconnaître les concepts clés pour la projection de la dette publique.
  • D’utiliser des calculs simples afin de projeter la dette publique.
  • D’identifier les principaux facteurs qui contribuent à l’évolution du ratio dette publique-pib.
  • De calculer des trajectoires budgétaires qui permettraient l’atteinte d’une cible de dette publique définie par l’utilisateur.
  • De produire des projections du ratio de la dette dans différents scénarios, y compris des graphiques en éventail.

Good to know

Know what's good
, what to watch for
, and possible dealbreakers
Develops core skills and deep expertise in debt dynamics
Grounded in established concepts and principles in economics
Provides practical Excel-based tools for immediate implementation
Instruction by Leonardo Martínez, recognised for work in debt dynamics
Suitable for both beginners and experienced economists
Prerequisites include basic familiarity with Excel and economic concepts

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Activities

Be better prepared before your course. Deepen your understanding during and after it. Supplement your coursework and achieve mastery of the topics covered in Projeter la dette publique – L’Outil sur les dynamiques de la dette publique (DDtx) with these activities:
Review Dynamic Equations
Refreshing your knowledge of dynamic equations will provide a strong foundation for understanding the concepts of public debt dynamics.
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  • Revisit basic concepts of velocity, acceleration, and force.
  • Review the equations of motion, including constant acceleration, free fall, and projectile motion.
Review Time Value of Money
Brush up on the concepts of Time Value of Money to build a strong foundation for understanding debt dynamics.
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  • Review the formula for present value and future value.
  • Practice calculating present and future values for different interest rates and time periods.
Excel Training: Data Analysis and Visualization
The Public Debt Dynamics Tool operates on Excel. This tutorial will ensure that you are proficient in using Excel for data analysis and visualization, which will enhance your ability to use the tool effectively.
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  • Enroll in an online tutorial or course on Excel.
  • Practice using Excel for data analysis and visualization tasks.
  • Create charts and graphs to represent data.
Two other activities
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Solve Public Debt Dynamics Problems
Solving practice problems will enhance your understanding of public debt dynamics and the factors that influence it. This will enable you to apply the concepts learned in the course more effectively.
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  • Find practice problems from textbooks, online resources, or previous course materials.
  • Attempt to solve the problems independently.
  • Review the solutions and identify areas for improvement.
Project: Public Debt Analysis Report
This project will provide you with hands-on experience in analyzing public debt dynamics and formulating policy recommendations. It will deepen your understanding of the topic and its implications.
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  • Choose a country or region to analyze.
  • Collect data on public debt, economic growth, and other relevant indicators.
  • Use the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to project public debt scenarios.
  • Develop policy recommendations based on your analysis.
  • Write a report presenting your findings and recommendations.

Career center

Learners who complete Projeter la dette publique – L’Outil sur les dynamiques de la dette publique (DDtx) will develop knowledge and skills that may be useful to these careers:
Project Manager
Project Managers use their knowledge of project management to plan and execute projects. They may use tools like Excel-based models to manage their projects, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial constraints and opportunities faced by projects.
Business Analyst
Business Analysts use their knowledge of business and technology to help organizations improve their performance. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial challenges and opportunities faced by organizations.
Data Analyst
Data Analysts use their knowledge of data analysis and visualization to extract insights from data. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial data used by organizations to make decisions.
Financial Analyst
Financial Analysts use financial data and analysis to make recommendations on investments. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial performance of companies and making sound investment decisions.
Consultant
Consultants use their knowledge of business and finance to help organizations improve their performance. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial challenges and opportunities faced by organizations.
Quantitative Analyst
Quantitative Analysts use mathematical and statistical models to analyze financial data and make investment decisions. They may develop and use Excel-based models to perform these analyses, and this course can provide a strong foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial markets and making sound investment decisions.
Actuary
Actuaries use mathematical and statistical models to assess the financial risks faced by insurance companies and other financial institutions. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial risks faced by insurance companies and other financial institutions.
Investment Banker
Investment Bankers use their knowledge of finance and capital markets to help companies raise money and make acquisitions. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial markets and making sound investment decisions.
Portfolio Manager
Portfolio Managers use their knowledge of finance and investments to manage portfolios of stocks, bonds, and other financial assets. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial markets and making sound investment decisions.
Risk Manager
Risk Managers use their knowledge of finance and risk management to identify and mitigate risks faced by organizations. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial risks faced by organizations.
Financial Planner
Financial Planners use their knowledge of finance and financial planning to help individuals and families manage their finances. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct their analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial challenges and opportunities faced by individuals and families.
Credit Analyst
Credit Analysts use financial data and analysis to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the risks and rewards of lending money.
Economist
Economists use economic principles and data analysis to study the economy and make predictions about its future performance. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in economic modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the economic outlook and making sound policy decisions.
Budget Analyst
Budget Analysts use financial data and analysis to develop and manage budgets for organizations. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial constraints and opportunities faced by organizations.
Financial Risk Analyst
Financial Risk Analysts leverage their knowledge of financial markets, accounting principles, and statistical modeling techniques to assess the risk of financial instruments and portfolios. They may use tools like Excel-based models to conduct these analyses, and this course can provide a foundation in financial modeling and quantitative analysis that is essential for success in this role. The course also covers topics such as debt dynamics and budgeting, which are critical for understanding the financial risks faced by companies and governments.

Reading list

We've selected ten books that we think will supplement your learning. Use these to develop background knowledge, enrich your coursework, and gain a deeper understanding of the topics covered in Projeter la dette publique – L’Outil sur les dynamiques de la dette publique (DDtx).
Provides a detailed account of the global financial crisis. It tells the story of the key players who were involved in the crisis, and it examines the decisions that they made that led to the crisis.
Provides a classic analysis of the Wall Street Crash of 1929. It argues that the crash was caused by a combination of factors, including the rise of speculation, the failure of regulation, and the pursuit of excessive risk by investors.
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the various aspects of public debt analysis. It covers topics such as the definition and measurement of public debt, the sustainability of public debt, and the management of public debt.
Provides a unique perspective on the global financial crisis. It argues that the crisis was caused by a combination of factors, including the rise of shadow banking, the failure of regulation, and the pursuit of excessive risk by financial institutions.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the history of financial markets. It argues that there are certain patterns that repeat themselves over time, and that these patterns can be used to predict future events.
Provides a comprehensive analysis of the issue of debt relief. It argues that debt relief is necessary to help poor countries achieve sustainable economic growth.
Examines the relationship between public debt and inequality. It argues that public debt can lead to increased inequality, as the wealthy benefit more from government spending than the poor.
This paper examines the political economy of public debt. It argues that the level of public debt is determined by a number of political factors, including the strength of the government, the size of the electorate, and the level of public trust.

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